Tidbits

Hello everyone guess whoose back? Henry's back, tell a friend. Hello everyone I'm back and this post is going to be more of a general thoughts post then any particular direction. As I'm sure, were all relived and overjoyed that Manny is going to be gone until almost the all star break which is great news without a doubt. At the same token there's no real way to gauge how much of an effect no Manny will have in the lineup. The obvious being, is that I expect Andre Eithier to come back to Earth. I also very much expect the Dodgers pitching staff to come down to Earth. For instance Randy Wolf has a sub 3 era. Eric Stults has a 3.58 era. Yes, Billinglsey is an ace and Kershaw could be one day but in the present he isn't likely to be. The other troubling problem for the Dodgers is their lack of depth they have been juggling 5th starters this season splitting duties to John Mcdonald and Jeff Weaver. Yes, Kuroda is a solid 3/4 but he's out for a considerable amount of time. 

Yes, we can say all we want about how the dodgers will come back to Earth, but the point of the matter is, is there ANY reason to expect why we'll improve? As we all know the biggest problem the Giants have, and it's not even debatable is the Giants extreme inability to score runs let alone manufacture runs. We have a lineup full of 6/7 hitters on good teams that are hitting in the heart of our order. We have scored the fewest runs in baseball and the team had also drawn the fewest walks in the majors. It's way to early to speculate about any trades, I just didn't know it was going to be this frustrating to watch.

In other news, Brandon Crawford, Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson were all promoted to AA Conneticut. I was surprised to see Crawford promoted and Posey not promoted. Crawford has been ripping the seams of the baseball to the tune of a .360/.430/.570 line this year in the minors. However, he has also had contact problems this year having struck out 34 times in 27 games which is troubling. I'm surprised Posey wasn't promoted due to the fact that he's very polished and AA Defenders manager Steve Decker is a former big league catching so I thought he'd be in Conneticut sooner rather than later. But don't worry he's still putting up a .298/.375/500 line and i expect his batting average to climb. He'll most likely be in AA come this time next month at least. Bumgarner makes his first start tomorrow with Alderson having made his debut today. Alderson was beastly he "gutted" the Fishercats lineup, striking out 10 and leaving the games after 6 and two thirds with a no hitter in hand. Well, thats all she wrote for now I'm trying to watch the game and getting distracted by tis blog post. Tomorrow I promise to have another draft preview up.

Draft Preview!

Hello Ladies and gentleman, boys and girls! I would like to welcome people of all backgrounds to Henry's 09 Giants Draft Preview! (J I'll do an A's one later) The amateur draft also known as the rule four draft, takes place on June 9th. The Giants have the good fortune of picking sixth. Unfortunatley, this draft is very heavy in a department the Giants have plenty of help in.....PITCHING. However, there are 3 elite position players in the draft. Dustin Ackley, Grant Green and Donavan Tate all figure to be top ten picks. The latter two should be avaiable when the Giants pick unless Green catches fire or a team in front of the Giants loves him.

 Ackley is the North Carolina starting first baseman. The guy can absolutely rake there's no question about that. He hit .419 as a sophomore last season and is currently hitting over .400 this season. The question isn't whether or not he can hit. The question is how much power he can hit for and where is his defensive home. The reason why he is at first base isn't because of the fact or due to the fact that he's un-athletic. It's because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery so they put him there in order to take the stress of his arm. Scouts think he has the athleticism to play center field but scouts want to see him play there this spring. Either way he figures to switch to a corner OF as a pro and he personally reminds me of J's favorite Andre Eithier. After looking at him on youtube I tend to agree that his swing isn't very condusive to power. 

Green is an interesting case, last August his draft stock was hotter than a Lil Wayne single. After a mediocre season in this fall at USC scouts are starting to question how "elite" of a talent he really is. Coming off his Cape Cod league MVP campaign he was compared to scouts as a Tulowitzki/Longoria hybrid which sounds like an all star shortstop. Since then he's faltered a bit and scouts are starting to over disect his game. He is far big (around 6'2 215) but similar to Tulowitzki he has average range but an above average arm. He profiles anywhere from the 2-5 hole in a lineup. The most glaring alarm about him is his heap of strikeouts and inability to make consistent contact this season. In that sense he's similar to 08 Giants draft pick Brandon Crawford. My guess is that he falls to them, it'll be between he, Zack Wheeler add Aaron Crow. (First round possibilities is tomorrows post)

Tate is the ultimate tease, a true five tool potential stud that oozes power and speed. In many ways Tate is similar to Marlins Center Fielder Cameron Maybin. Both were highly regarded athletes coming out of high school and figure to be top 7 picks. Tate, who hails from Georgia is also an outstanding football prospect who was recruited to play safety as USC before signing to North Carolina to play QB and Center Field for the Tar Heels. His true love is baseball and he will sign if he goes as high as six, he will most likely use his scholarship as leverage but won't turn down 4 million. He is also similar to last years first round pick of the Twins Aaron Hicks but offers more power potential. Like many two way players, and high school players he's quite raw and still growing into his massive potential. He is clearly an outstanding athlete and has every premium tool you could ask for at a premium position nonetheless. When the Giants are on the clock he will be a very tempting option to pass up between now and June 9th I may change my mind. 

Well folks thats all for tonight. This isn't a summary of all first round hitters but merely ones the Giants would consider at their position I will do a more comprehensive breakdown on the whole draft later along with some late round sleepers. Tomorrow I will do a post on probable pitchers. 

Inbox..

Hello all as I'm writing this Randy Winn just swung threw a Jake Peavy fastball for strike three. I'm displeased to announce I'm not publishing my article "How Ned Colleti" ruined the dodgers yet because I want to give myself enough time to do a job that makes the Dodgers organization look like well.....dare I say the Pirates? Without further ado I'm launching a new feature. For now on whenever Giants beat writer Chris Haft does a mailbag of questions I will answer the same questions. A to show I could do a better job and B I feel like it. I'm going to avoid dumb questions however such as what's Omar Visquel's future as a manager because frankly it's boring. Without further ado we have our first question!: 

To Summarize Duncan's question (who lives in San Francisco) will Barry Zito win 15 games?

Hello Duncan and thank you for submitting this question, the honest answer no. However I am somewhat optimistic about Zito going forward. In thursday bights start against LA he was sitting 87-89 for the vast majority of the game following a second inning walk of Casey Blake I believe he just constantly started throwing harder which also makes a world of difference because it distinguishes an actual gap or difference between his fastball and changeup. He was also able to find the strike zone constantly with his curve. Yes, the man had an era of ten but there are some very promising signs for one he has a ration of 8 k's per nine innings. And hitters on the young season are hitting an artifically high .365 off of him on balls in play.  For reference the major league average is .297. Another thing that is very encouraging is that he has a 46% ground ball rate so he is generally keeping the ball on the ground. Albeit a very small sample size. Going forward I would say Zito will pitch like more of a four starter than a 5th starter/long reliever but if the velocity bump is for real he could realistically put up an era under 4.2 in my opinion. 

Mike From Murphysboro Illinois wants my opinion on the possibility of seeing Madison Bumgarner  in the french vanilla at some point this year. Well Mike unlike our previous guest I would say there is a decent chance at seeing the lanky lefty gracing the mound at our beloved AT&T in my estimation he will be in double by the end of may early June give or take. I could see him coming up whether or not the Giants are in contention either to give him a glimpse of the majors if there in the cellar. Or to use him out of the pen if they are in contention similar to what the Devil Rays did with David Price last September (not saying he will have the same effect)

Well it looks like we have time for one more question......we turn to the locals where Chris from San Fran looks to beat a dead horse once again. Chris wants to know if I think we should trade Matt Cain given our staple of pitching at the major league level and soon to high minors. Well Chris once again given the time and circumstances I'm not sure why you would trade Matt Cain right now sure if offered Hanley Ramirez I would in a second but thats a pipe dream. I think we should keep the strength of our team intact especially since there all under team control the next three plus seasons. I would be more open to this if Bumgarner and Alderson established themselves at the big league level but thats at least two years away. (Not from being in the majors but making a firm impact) So it's premature to trade Cain because of their presence at the same token I'm we have a decent amount of positional talent in the organization that is only a year away in some cases. I think the best thing to do would be to stand pat with our talent. 

What Ned Colleti Has Done To The Dodgers

As I'm writing this I'm watching our very Giants down 3-2 in the top of the fifth and our favorite manager Joe Torre has come out of his dugout dwelling to converse with the one and only Eric Stults on how to attack Rich Aurilla. But something struck me while I was watching the game. The Dodgers, believe it or not have some very good homegrown fixtures in their lineup and rotation (ie Matt Kemp, James Loney, Russel Martin, Andre Either if you count him, Chad Billingsley,Clayton Kershaw and Johnathan Broxton) You can attribute this to a combination of front office fixtures scouting director Logan White, former GM Paul Depodesta, current giants scouting director John Barr or Colleti. The majority of talent was amassed before Colleti got there however with the exceptions of Either whom he directly traded for and Kershaw who was drafted during his regime. While all looks peachy currently in Dodger land it's safe to say "what could have been."

Going over Colleti's trade history there are no glaring holes, though I have the hunch trading switch hitting stud catcher Carlos Santana and dependable future setup man Jon Meloan for a mediocre Casey Blake will be uttered in the same sentence as the Kazmir and Liriano trades. If anything he has done fairly well picking up a dependable run producer, current and future right fielder Andre Eithier for a disgruntled Milton Bradley. And the cherry on top, being the Manny Ramirez trade that put them over the top and is still paying dividends. On this front I'd give the man a B/B+ but once you delve deeper you find disturbing parallels between Colleti and his former boss. (Sabean)

Take for instance the curious case of Jason Schimdt. Two years into his 3 year 47 million dollar contract he has thrown a whopping 25 innings. So up until this point Shmidt (who earns 15.5 million this year in the final year of his contract) has made 31.5 million dollars over 25 ip in two years lets due the math. Thats 1 million 240 thousand per inning. Mind Blowing sure you can say whatever you want about the terrible Zito signing. But at least the guy eats innings albeit at 18 million a year. Then You have the Andruw Jones signing. Oh boy I don't even know where to start on this one. First off Jones is being paid by the Dodgers 18 million dollars a year to play for the Rangers. During his time in Los Angeles Jones, amassed only 3 home runs and 14 rbi's over 238 at bats. Realize, Jones has made twelve million dollars per home run and 2.57 million dollars per home run. In the same period of time the Giants have paid Randy Winn around 17 million give or take the past 4 years. During that time he has amassed 694 hits the past four seasons (counting his half season in Seattle) which means he has been paid around 2,400 per hit. Whereas Jones who collected 33 hits in his only season in LA (which cost the team 36 million dollars) was paid one 1.09 million dollars per base hit. Juan Pierre is in the third year of a 5 year 44 million dollar contract and while it's not his fault he has been releagted to the role of a fourth outfielder. He is making approximatley 14 thousand dollars per base hit, while not terrible compare it to Randy Winn who makes two thousand per base hit and throw in the fact that Winn plays elite defense and you have the superior bargain. 

Ned Colleti is directly affecting the farm system. Yes I said it and I'll say it again. The Dodgers  were ranked 23rd heading into this season and it doesn't look like it's going to get better anytime soon. Sure, the Dodgers have consistently been amongst the top 6 but those rankings were helped by the likes of Matt Kemp, James Loney, Clayton Kershaw, Russel Martin and Chad Billingsley. During those years Colleti had the chance to leave his own thumbprint upon the system but questionable selections such as Preston Mattingly and James Adkins have left the Dodgers system well, lifeless. I'll commend him for his selections of Andrew Lambo, Ethan Martin and Josh Lindbolm looks like a keep but besides that trio there farm system in very unimpressive. I will go as far to say I could have run a better draft. True there's still time to turn thing around but they aren't nearly as aggressive in Latin America as they used to be. The reason why they had to unload Christian Santana along with Jon Meloan is because they couldn't take on a substantial amount of money so the Indians took better prospects in return. The point of the matter is 127 million dollars the Dodgers have spent over the past 3 seasons. For a return of 25.1 terrible innings, 3 home runs and 14 rbi's and for a quality fourth outfielder. The reason why Colleti isn't looked at as a terrible GM is due to the fact that much of the talent the Dodgers are using right now to claim first place in the National League was in place before he ever walked into Dodger Stadium. Their farm system is only getting worse and his terrible decision making has cost them millions, and victories. Either way you slice it......the Dodgers still suck

I"M BACK

Hola' fellow bloggers I'm back and just in time. I'm sorry the hiatus I took was much to long and I'm going to resume regular posting on www.caincecum.blogspot.com. Very much has changed in the past month and a half and I'm able to fully invest my time since I no longer play lacrosse and I'm healthy once again. On the other hand, our Giants are off to a less than inspiring 2-4 start and are currently down 7-1 in Los Angeles to our least favorite team. It's only been six games so there's no reason to hit any sort of panic button but there are some things that I find less than inspiring with some reason to worry. 

Yes, he has only thrown eight innings the whole season but i am a tad worried about Timmy Lincecum. Opening day he wasn't hit particularly hard at all though he did give up 3 runs in as many innings. I wasn't worried one but since his stuff looked great that day. His fastball was sitting 93-95 touching 97 a few times i believe with great tail from right handed batters it would explode before getting to the batter. The only problem was that he had a big problem locating it. When he did find the strike zone with the fastball it was down the heart of the plate and straight. Much like his fastball his curveball had similar problems. It was breaking 12 to 5 but he struggled to find the strike zone with it consistently so hitters would lay off. His change was his most reliable pitch and leaned on it heavily. Again his stuff was there his command wasn't and he had just struck out 8 Oakland A's albeit in an exhibition game a week prior. Then I watched his San Diego start yesterday and was generally concerned. It's true you never want to see back to back starts where your staff ace struggles but when it's your 24 year old reigning cy young award winner just coming off a career high in Innings last season you only get more paranoid. What I saw in yesterdays start was a flat fastball that continually sat 90-91 with no movement though he was able to locate it. His changeup was largely ineffective and had no depth/fade whatever you wish to call it. His curve was great however and was able to move in it and out of the strike zone effectively. Yes, he did have a better line and struck out 5 batters in 5 innings. And yes it's true that he should have only given up 2 earned runs. But it also scares me a tad that his stuff has been so insistent on this young season. If your looking for another bright spot he has struck out 10 batter in 8 innings. I'm not to worried but like anything there's room for concern. As for the Giants current record they haven't played terribly. Remember there has only been two series thus far and they played great at home against the Brew Crew I'm just praying the play from San Diego doesn't hop on the team plane to L.A.

The thing that is the most troubling however is the Giants starting five. I'm quickly starting to realize that their vastly over rated and resemble the 05 staff. Coming in the 2005 staff was supposed to be the rock of the team. But an injury riddled season by Jason Schimdt, a declining Kirk Reuter, a mediocre season by veteran Brett Tomko, A strong debut by Noah Lowry and spotty spot starters Brad Hennessy and Kevin Corriea led to the teams downfall. I'm a bit worried that after Lincecum And Cain the staff is quite underwhelming. Zito is a fifth starter at best, for the nationals at best. Johnson is still a very effective pitcher WHEN healthy but has battled injuries this whole spring and is showing a big dip in velocity thus far. For a pitcher than has always pitched up in the zone and relied on his fastball slider combination this is a HUGE problem. Sanchez is what he is, a wild card someone who can turn in a seven inning gem with his fair share of whiffs, but he could also turn in a 4 inning Zito job with more hits than Lil Wayne and more walks than a retirement home.  I'm not saying the sky is falling but rather the sky is cloudy. Perhaps I need to step away from the T.V because I've never cared so much but I'm a tad worried. (P.S I plan to go to a S.J Giants game this week to hopefully see Bumgarner and make a post until tomorrow! cya) 

Sanchez...........or Lowry....................that is the question?

Yes Mike, this is your turn. What Mike essentially asked Henry Schulman was what do the Giants do in the event that Lowry not only proves to be healthy but also "out-competes" Sanchez for the fifth starter spot? Well Mike good question because I don't think giantsmanagement has an answer either. At the same time I think we should look at the chances of such a scenario happening. Lowry hasn't proven to be healthy since Auguest of 2007 which in the baseball world is a substantial time. Sanchez on the other hand got the attention o the baseball world by bursting onto the baseball scence with his strong irst half of the season. In which he posted a 3.86 era before the all star break. With 121 strikeouts in 111 inninngs pitched which was good for a 10.1k/9ip ratio. Suprisingly however he finished with 157 k's in 158 innings so yes his rate fell from 10.1k/9ip to a 9.9k/9ips ratio. This shows a slight regression in "stuff" but not one signiicant enough to pin all his troubles on. And his walk rate stayed near the same so it was either his command within the strike zone or B. the league simply adjusted to him as the year went on. I'll take a combination o the two due to the fact that becuase Sanchez only threw 52 innings the previous year compared to 158 this past year it's plenty reasonable to say he could have been worndown. This isn't the only telling story though there are numerous other factors such as defense, park factors ect. One must also look at our current staple of pitching within the organization yes, Alderson and Bumgarner are among the best arms in the minors but at the same time you must realize that between the two of them they have 0 games pitched above high a so though they may have the upside of Scott kazmir and let's say Chris Carpenter(of the top of my head) they are still a very long ways away from reaching it. But, let's assume Lowry returns to his previous form of a 3 starter or so I think it's perfectly reasonable to look to trade Sanchez. With a rotation anchored by Lincecum and Cin for the next couple of the years and perhaps Alderson and Bumgarner as soon as next year it's reasonable to look to adress the other teams needs which is essentially any young position player with upside that is ready to contribute at the major league level. I think we should re-visit this train of thought...........https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=3841533663452622434&postID=8084398248621842699 yes, take out the idea of Burris and replace him with Sanchez and you may be onto something. We have a very crowded outfield due to bad managerial deciscions by.........Sabean to sign Rowand, Roberts ect. but the potential impact bat ofYoung is something we are sorely lacking. The biggest problem i would have with this move is it makes it even murkier how we would get both Shierholtz and Young a substantial amount of at bats but it's defiently something to chew on especially since the twins appear eager to move him as well. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/02/twins-showing-i.html

Mini Mailbag

Hello all, I'm only doing a "mini mailbag" I know I promised to field all the questions from last week's mailbag but it doesn't make sense to answer my own question s. So next mailbag we have I will need other people to field more questions to ask anyway here we go. 

"Dear Henry, Out of the four highest touted Giants prospects whom do you see as the most likely to bust and who would you pick out of Posey, Bumgarner, Alderson and Villalona?) Thanks again I love your blog and love you even more. -Jeremy CA)

Haha Umm, well thank you Jay anyway let me disect your question like a lab rat. Conventional wisdom would point to either choosing Bumgarner or Villalona out of the four due to the fact that there both the youngest and furthest away from the majors. However I think in Bumgarner's case this is less applicable due to the fact that he flat out dominated an age appropriate level for him in low a and giants management is so impressed with him that there supposedly having him open the year in AA with Alderson. ( Bumarner struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings and issued 1 walk for ever strikeout while posting a minor league best 1.46 era so yes the term domination is appropriate. Yes, I agree Bumgarner is far from a sure thing ecspecially due to the fact that he's never thrown above low a and his fastball is much further along than his secondary pitches at this point. At the same token a mid 90's fastball with plus life and control from a 19 year old lefthanders arm is almost as rare as seeing big foot. But let's also forget Bumagrner's secondary offerings aren't chump change either. Bumganrer wasn't abllowed to throw a breaking pitch by his father until he was a senior in high school so the fact that he already has a major league average slider and shows great feel for it and a changeup as well are very promising signs that given the time the slider will be a plus pitch and the changeup at least average. He also has impeccable control having only walked 21 batters in 141 inning this year. For me he's a keeper, Jim Callis and John Manuel of baseballamerica have him as the second  best pitching prospect in the minors behind that Price guy.......) Well I ain't tryna slack or jack but bedtime for this cat I'll finish this question along with Micheal's tm because of our short day good night and good luck