A Stalemate

Yesterday I was talking to my friend Jeremy who happens to be quite the A's fan. I was jeering him about the shape the Giants are in comparison to the A's. Naturally he took the bait and decided to make a case that though the Giants may have more valuable pieces the A's have quite a bit of depth. I countered and reasoned that though the A's may have "quite a bit of depth" they lack in quality and the A's couldn't even muster a five player package straight up for Tim Lincecum. This made him appalled he gave me an offer of Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Brett Wallace, Chris Carter and Adrian Cardenas for Tim Lincecum. At first I was taken back to a degree by what I had just said but then I realized that all I had to argue was Lincecum's immediate value to the franchise now and in the future. He reasoned that the Giants aren't playing for this season necesiarily so it's best to build for the future right now. I countered and said the following. Tim Lincecum is under team control through 2012. He currently may be the most valuable commodity in baseball. He is a 25 year old starting pitcher who won a cy young award in his first full season, he's well on his way to arguably another cy young award. He will be a San Francisco Giant barring injury for at least the next three seasons. Due to his level of sustained dominance in his brief career,his youth and health you could argue he should net the biggest return out of any player in baseball. Jeremy is quite aware of Tim Lincecum's value and dominance he then countered with Dan Haren noting that Haren was dealt for a package of five players to of whom would be in the proposed deal. He said that Lincecum and Haren were "quite similar" at the time that Haren was dealt. 

Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum were horses of a different color at the same point in their respective careers. When Dan Haren was 25 he went 14-13 with a 4.12 era with 176 k's in 227 innings pitched. In the midst of his second full season at age 25 Lincecum in currently 12-3 with a 2.18 era he has 191 k's in 156 innings pitched. It was not until age 26 when Dan Haren was even able to be mentioned as a front of the rotation starter let alone a bonafide ace. At age 26 Haren went 15-9 with a 3.07 era he had 197 k's in 227 innings. Lincecum has six less strikeouts in 71 less innings pitched this season. At the time of the trade Dan Haren was under team control for two years whereas Lincecum was for three. During his time in Oakland Dan Haren averaged 7.2 k's/9ip. During his time in San Francisco Lincecum has averaged 10.3k's/9 ip. So no Dan Haren is in no way shape a form a good comparable to the package of talent Tim Lincecum would warrant. Tim Lincecum is a legitimate ace he has won a cy young award, he has made two all star teams in two full seasons. He was the superior pitcher to Dan Haren from a younger age. When Dan Haren was dealt he was dealt with a year less of team control. Dan Haren is now 28 and he has NEVER put up a season in which he is comparable let alone superior to Tim Lincecum. So Jeremy, I'll say this maybe Dan Haren should be a starting point, at best for Tim Lincecum 

"The Giants aren't necessarily going to win this season, they have been in the midst of rebuilding for sometime which is why they should do this trade" Ether. You presume that the Giants aren't going to contend this season or anytime soon. But let's take a look the Giants are tied for the wildcard lead as we speak. So they are clearly in contention. Let's also not pretend like this is a mirage the Giants are anchored by to aces ages 25,24 respectively in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and a 22 year old third baseman with a .938 ops  who happens to be the best case scenario for Brett Wallace. (Who is only 12 days younger than Sandoval by the way.) The Giants also happen to have two of the best five prospects in baseball half a season away so the Giants are not far away from competing at a high level for years to come at all. Let's hypothetically say the Giants do reach the playoffs which is not a big stretch whatsoever. They can throw Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez few if any team in baseball can match that combination this gives you as a legitimate shot as any to win the world series and makes you incredibly dangerous in the postseason. If the Giants were to trade away Lincecum it would set them back for years to come due to the fact that they would not be able to reach the postseason in the next two years possibly due to the fact that they would not be able to replace Lincecum's production for years to come. With Lincecum, Cain, Sandoval producing the way they are the Giants have built a trio of talent that will ensure the Giants the ability to compete year in and year out especially with comparable nearly ready to contribute at the major league level. Trading away the most valuable piece in Lincecum will only further stagnate our ability to compete and eventually win a world series in the coming years. The Giants clearly have a decent staple of young established major league talent at the major league level which is something the A's do not yet have. Which is why one franchise is pushing for the playoffs while the other is dwelling in last place. Not having Tim Lincecum's production this year abd instead having that of Brett Anderson And Trevor Cahill would have created a dramatic dropoff in wins. If your looking for eveidence on how dominant Lincecum has been this season let's put it this way. According to fangraphs so far this season Albert Pujols has been 5.6 wins above replacement for any batter. This figure is the third highest in baseball behind Zack Greinke with 6.4, Greinke trails only Lincecum who has been 6.6 wins above replacement this season the highest figure in baseball. Is Time Lincecum the most valuable player in baseball? Is he the most valuable player in baseball even without considering his contract?  

You cannot possibly accept Brett Anderson as the centerpiece to a starting pitcher that is under team control for nearly the same amount of time that Lincecum is. They were both drafted in 2006. Lincecum made his debut two years prior but if I'm right that means Anderson only has an extra year of being team controlled than Lincecum does. Brett Wallace is a questionable defender at third base and his best case scenario is likely Pablo Sandoval however Wallace is only two weeks younger than our Sandoval and while Sandoval has posted a .938 ops in the majors this season Sandoval, Wallace has posted a .777 ops in the EXTREMELY friendly confines of the pacific coast league. Pablo Sandoval makes Brett Wallace look like Neifi Perez there is no comparison to be made right now. Cardenas is a solid prospect in his own right who put up a good line in the Texas League before being promoted .326/.392/.446 at the same ever since his promotion to AAA he has a.......125/225/225 line thats right folks he has a .450 ops right now through 71 ab's in AAA yes it's a very small sample size at the same time when were trading the most dominant pitcher in baseball and perhaps the most valuable piece in baseball I want a top 5 prospect at least. But to be far, he's a very good prospect who I liken to Jose Vidro in his prime on the other hand. We just gave up a piece in Tim Alderson for a second baseman for the next year as well. This also obviously speaks volumes about the Giants intentions to compete for the next two seasons. If we were to make such a trade you would assume they would have no thought about trading Tim Lincecum correct? If your making this trade you are essentially banking that 3 out of the five players in this deal hit their absolute ceiling. Coming into the year most experts saw Anderson and Cahill as front of the line starters but not true aces like Lincecum. Neither have done anything to dispel these prior thoughts before the season. If you were to acquire Chris Carter and brett Wallace you would have a log jam due to the fact that you have Sandoval firmly entrenched at third base and no DH in the national league as a result these players would lose significant value to the Giants since for the time being only one of them could be in the lineup at once meaning you wouldn't be able to have Wallace and Carter in the lineup at the same time without sacrificing substantial defensive value by having one of them miscast in the outfield at the same time as the other. Besides Brett Anderson the most interesting or sought after piece to me would be Chris Carter due to the fact that he's an impact bat putting up very impressive numbers at first base in the hitting starved Texas league. 

In the end I think this is a slam dunk for the Giants. My point being if I'm Brian Sabean and Mr. Beane calls me and offers me this trade on July 31, 2009 I hide back the laughter and say to him on the phone "let me get back to you." I then run over to Larry Baer, John Barr and Bobby Evans and we start crying out with laughter. I think the point has been made clear however, the Giants clearly to plan to win this season the recent acquisitions of Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez prove that as does their standing in the National League Wild Card race. The team is already built for the future in mainstays such as Lincecum,Cain,Sandoval and Wilson at the major league level. There is also an influx of talent on the way. I also believe I have proven why it would be in the Giants best interests to politely decline this deal as their future isn't far away and in fact it may be in front of us. Trading Tim Lincecum at this moment would lead to a significant drop off in performance as well as putting contention on hold yet again. You could also reason many of the players in the deal are far from sure things and if you were to make such a deal you would want at least one established major leaguer in return. So no Tim Lincecum>Brett Anderson,Trevor Cahill,Chris Carter,Brett Wallace and Adrian Cardenas 

Bay Area Winds........Giants Edition

I'll be the first to admit I was very very keen on acquiring Freddy Sanchez for a variety of reasons. For one our production out of our second baseman has been the worst out of any position in the major leagues this season. i figured whenever you sub a position with a player that has a 2.2 War (win above replacement) for a platoon of players that had a -.7 WAR your instantly improving your club. I figured only 2 everyday position players had a higher ops than Sanchez (Sandoval, Rowand) so we would be adding another major league bat to our lineup in a lineup that is void of many. I also figured Sanchez would come somewhat cheap due to the fact that he had an 8.1 million dollar option for next season. I heard the rumors... Frandsen and Bowker, Frandsen and Guzman. Hey sounded great to me these players are good enough to be major league role players but had no place on our team given the way it's currently constructed. When I heard we acquired Sanchez I thought "sweetness" I was ignorant I didn;t think the great Neal Hunnington would pull such a heist. When I heard we had forked over Tim Alderoson however my voice cracked. Who, What, Where and Why? It made me want to call Mrs. Hunnigton and tell her her son was bullying Mr. Sabean. I'm not saying Sanchez isn't a very legitimate major league second baseman. I also didn't care as much for Alderson as other bloggers due to the absence of a quality major league fastball. I am however weary due to the fact that I believe Alderson could have been a significant piece to add a legitimate middle of the order bat that we so sorely need.....(Victor cough* Martinez) i'm not going to go to into Alderson's scouting report because I have in the past but he did give up 114 hits in only 104 innings....at the same time he had a 35/9 k/bb ratio which is preety damn good. On the contrary opponents were hitting .273 against him. At the same time he still only has a 3.54 era in AA a a 20 year old. The reason why I was always fascinated by Alderson was because of his frame. I always figured at 6'6 219 he had plenty of room to add to his frame and if he were to grow into* a low 90's fastball he could be a front of the rotation starter, Reports from baseballamerica had him mid high 80's which is somewhat disturbing given his performance, his pedigree and his size. At the same time I guess it's the price you have to pay for an all star second baseman which will make us stronger without a doubt for the remainder of this year and next, don't get me wrong.(.....it also appears that all of a sudden our pitching depth has vanished........but thats another story.) To wrap it up I'll say this you have to give something to get something.

Bay Area Winds........

On July 31, 2009 the A's and Giants found themselves in very different positions. The A's were dwelling in last place of the American League West while the Giants were sitting high a top the National league wild card tied with a familiar division foe, the Colorado Rockies. Both teams made two trades a piece leading up to the deadline but had different purposes for making them. The first deal was A's shipping off Matt Holliday to St. Louis for a package of Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortenson and Shane Peterson. In many ways I found this deal to be ironic. ironic in the sense that there was an outcry after the A's had passed up Wallace in the draft a year prior for one Jemile Weeks. Ironic in the sense that he was almost traded to St. Louis the prior off season. This deal is a win win for both teams. For the A's they get a possible impact bat in Wallace. Comming out of the draft Wallace was seen as perhaps the "safest bat" in the draft due to his incredible feel for hitting. He was knocked a bit however due to the fact that he was questionable defensively and was likely to move t first base which would hurt his value due to the fact that scouts thought he had limited power potential due to the fact that he didn't offer much more projection in that his frame was pretty filled out. And rightfully so, while watching the futures game I instantly took note of Wallace's thick lower half which will most likely make his range detoriate in future seasons. He made a couple of routine plays but certainly didn't look the part of a solid major league third baseman he didn't have the smoothest actions and while he may be able to stay there to begin his career I eventually see him making the transformation to first base or DH. On the season Wallace is hitting .284/.364/.432  which is good for a .796 ops while not terrible isn't great either. In all fairness it's somewhat impressive that he's already in AAA. He's still getting on base at a decent clip but his strikeouts are a bit of an issue he currently has 81 in 103 games while I'm nitpicking a bit it's something to look for as we go forward I wouldn't quite promote him to the big leagues yet but I would be more willing to do so once rosters expand in September. Something else of note is that his BABIP for his career is .357 and his BABIP in Memphis before the time of the trade was .341 so I wouldn't say his step back from last season was a regression at all but that this is a more realistic indicator since his BABIP has come down a bit. I would still say I think Wallace can be a .300/.380/.480 player which is quite a valuable offensive contributor. They also received Clayton Mortenson in the deal. Mortenson was a supplemental first round pick out of Gonzaga in 2007. When drafted I saw him as an intruiging arm comming from a small school such as Gonzaga baseball speaking scouts thought he would need a bit more time to develop than most college pitchers in the first round. He hasn't developed slowly at all but sometimes his results aren't as good as one would think. He has a good 90-93 sinker with good late life and can dial it up to around 94 but then it flattens out. He also throws a slider that can be an outpitch as times but he struggles to find consistency with his third pitch his changeup this prompts many scouts to think he'll windup in the bullpen eventually. At the same time thats not all that bad, I figure he'd have a hard time cracking the Oakland rotation for years to come anyway. He does come with his fair share of red flags however, His whip in Memphis was 1.44 and so far in Sacremento in an extremely small sample size it's 1.77 so he's letting a lot of runners on base. Opponents are also hitting .284 against him so he's proving to be quite hittable .285 off of him. He's an interesting arm don't get me wrong but I see him as more of a reliever than a starter. Shane Peterson is an interesting player the 2nd round pick out of Long Beach State has played all over in his brief career 1b/rf/lf/cf he reminds me a bit of former Dirtbag and current Giants product John Bowker. He's somewhat similar to Bowker in that he profiles as a a corner outfield that will have to hit for substantial power to hold his value. He was promoted by the Cardinals earlier this season out of the Florida State League where he was only slugging .428 but in the Texas League he's only slugging .405.  I believe he could be similar to Bowker in the since that Bowker had stagnated until a promotion to AA and so far Peterson is putting up a .324/.390/.486 line in Midland albeit 9 games but you never know.......

Tidbits

Hello everyone guess whoose back? Henry's back, tell a friend. Hello everyone I'm back and this post is going to be more of a general thoughts post then any particular direction. As I'm sure, were all relived and overjoyed that Manny is going to be gone until almost the all star break which is great news without a doubt. At the same token there's no real way to gauge how much of an effect no Manny will have in the lineup. The obvious being, is that I expect Andre Eithier to come back to Earth. I also very much expect the Dodgers pitching staff to come down to Earth. For instance Randy Wolf has a sub 3 era. Eric Stults has a 3.58 era. Yes, Billinglsey is an ace and Kershaw could be one day but in the present he isn't likely to be. The other troubling problem for the Dodgers is their lack of depth they have been juggling 5th starters this season splitting duties to John Mcdonald and Jeff Weaver. Yes, Kuroda is a solid 3/4 but he's out for a considerable amount of time. 

Yes, we can say all we want about how the dodgers will come back to Earth, but the point of the matter is, is there ANY reason to expect why we'll improve? As we all know the biggest problem the Giants have, and it's not even debatable is the Giants extreme inability to score runs let alone manufacture runs. We have a lineup full of 6/7 hitters on good teams that are hitting in the heart of our order. We have scored the fewest runs in baseball and the team had also drawn the fewest walks in the majors. It's way to early to speculate about any trades, I just didn't know it was going to be this frustrating to watch.

In other news, Brandon Crawford, Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson were all promoted to AA Conneticut. I was surprised to see Crawford promoted and Posey not promoted. Crawford has been ripping the seams of the baseball to the tune of a .360/.430/.570 line this year in the minors. However, he has also had contact problems this year having struck out 34 times in 27 games which is troubling. I'm surprised Posey wasn't promoted due to the fact that he's very polished and AA Defenders manager Steve Decker is a former big league catching so I thought he'd be in Conneticut sooner rather than later. But don't worry he's still putting up a .298/.375/500 line and i expect his batting average to climb. He'll most likely be in AA come this time next month at least. Bumgarner makes his first start tomorrow with Alderson having made his debut today. Alderson was beastly he "gutted" the Fishercats lineup, striking out 10 and leaving the games after 6 and two thirds with a no hitter in hand. Well, thats all she wrote for now I'm trying to watch the game and getting distracted by tis blog post. Tomorrow I promise to have another draft preview up.

Draft Preview!

Hello Ladies and gentleman, boys and girls! I would like to welcome people of all backgrounds to Henry's 09 Giants Draft Preview! (J I'll do an A's one later) The amateur draft also known as the rule four draft, takes place on June 9th. The Giants have the good fortune of picking sixth. Unfortunatley, this draft is very heavy in a department the Giants have plenty of help in.....PITCHING. However, there are 3 elite position players in the draft. Dustin Ackley, Grant Green and Donavan Tate all figure to be top ten picks. The latter two should be avaiable when the Giants pick unless Green catches fire or a team in front of the Giants loves him.

 Ackley is the North Carolina starting first baseman. The guy can absolutely rake there's no question about that. He hit .419 as a sophomore last season and is currently hitting over .400 this season. The question isn't whether or not he can hit. The question is how much power he can hit for and where is his defensive home. The reason why he is at first base isn't because of the fact or due to the fact that he's un-athletic. It's because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery so they put him there in order to take the stress of his arm. Scouts think he has the athleticism to play center field but scouts want to see him play there this spring. Either way he figures to switch to a corner OF as a pro and he personally reminds me of J's favorite Andre Eithier. After looking at him on youtube I tend to agree that his swing isn't very condusive to power. 

Green is an interesting case, last August his draft stock was hotter than a Lil Wayne single. After a mediocre season in this fall at USC scouts are starting to question how "elite" of a talent he really is. Coming off his Cape Cod league MVP campaign he was compared to scouts as a Tulowitzki/Longoria hybrid which sounds like an all star shortstop. Since then he's faltered a bit and scouts are starting to over disect his game. He is far big (around 6'2 215) but similar to Tulowitzki he has average range but an above average arm. He profiles anywhere from the 2-5 hole in a lineup. The most glaring alarm about him is his heap of strikeouts and inability to make consistent contact this season. In that sense he's similar to 08 Giants draft pick Brandon Crawford. My guess is that he falls to them, it'll be between he, Zack Wheeler add Aaron Crow. (First round possibilities is tomorrows post)

Tate is the ultimate tease, a true five tool potential stud that oozes power and speed. In many ways Tate is similar to Marlins Center Fielder Cameron Maybin. Both were highly regarded athletes coming out of high school and figure to be top 7 picks. Tate, who hails from Georgia is also an outstanding football prospect who was recruited to play safety as USC before signing to North Carolina to play QB and Center Field for the Tar Heels. His true love is baseball and he will sign if he goes as high as six, he will most likely use his scholarship as leverage but won't turn down 4 million. He is also similar to last years first round pick of the Twins Aaron Hicks but offers more power potential. Like many two way players, and high school players he's quite raw and still growing into his massive potential. He is clearly an outstanding athlete and has every premium tool you could ask for at a premium position nonetheless. When the Giants are on the clock he will be a very tempting option to pass up between now and June 9th I may change my mind. 

Well folks thats all for tonight. This isn't a summary of all first round hitters but merely ones the Giants would consider at their position I will do a more comprehensive breakdown on the whole draft later along with some late round sleepers. Tomorrow I will do a post on probable pitchers. 

Inbox..

Hello all as I'm writing this Randy Winn just swung threw a Jake Peavy fastball for strike three. I'm displeased to announce I'm not publishing my article "How Ned Colleti" ruined the dodgers yet because I want to give myself enough time to do a job that makes the Dodgers organization look like well.....dare I say the Pirates? Without further ado I'm launching a new feature. For now on whenever Giants beat writer Chris Haft does a mailbag of questions I will answer the same questions. A to show I could do a better job and B I feel like it. I'm going to avoid dumb questions however such as what's Omar Visquel's future as a manager because frankly it's boring. Without further ado we have our first question!: 

To Summarize Duncan's question (who lives in San Francisco) will Barry Zito win 15 games?

Hello Duncan and thank you for submitting this question, the honest answer no. However I am somewhat optimistic about Zito going forward. In thursday bights start against LA he was sitting 87-89 for the vast majority of the game following a second inning walk of Casey Blake I believe he just constantly started throwing harder which also makes a world of difference because it distinguishes an actual gap or difference between his fastball and changeup. He was also able to find the strike zone constantly with his curve. Yes, the man had an era of ten but there are some very promising signs for one he has a ration of 8 k's per nine innings. And hitters on the young season are hitting an artifically high .365 off of him on balls in play.  For reference the major league average is .297. Another thing that is very encouraging is that he has a 46% ground ball rate so he is generally keeping the ball on the ground. Albeit a very small sample size. Going forward I would say Zito will pitch like more of a four starter than a 5th starter/long reliever but if the velocity bump is for real he could realistically put up an era under 4.2 in my opinion. 

Mike From Murphysboro Illinois wants my opinion on the possibility of seeing Madison Bumgarner  in the french vanilla at some point this year. Well Mike unlike our previous guest I would say there is a decent chance at seeing the lanky lefty gracing the mound at our beloved AT&T in my estimation he will be in double by the end of may early June give or take. I could see him coming up whether or not the Giants are in contention either to give him a glimpse of the majors if there in the cellar. Or to use him out of the pen if they are in contention similar to what the Devil Rays did with David Price last September (not saying he will have the same effect)

Well it looks like we have time for one more question......we turn to the locals where Chris from San Fran looks to beat a dead horse once again. Chris wants to know if I think we should trade Matt Cain given our staple of pitching at the major league level and soon to high minors. Well Chris once again given the time and circumstances I'm not sure why you would trade Matt Cain right now sure if offered Hanley Ramirez I would in a second but thats a pipe dream. I think we should keep the strength of our team intact especially since there all under team control the next three plus seasons. I would be more open to this if Bumgarner and Alderson established themselves at the big league level but thats at least two years away. (Not from being in the majors but making a firm impact) So it's premature to trade Cain because of their presence at the same token I'm we have a decent amount of positional talent in the organization that is only a year away in some cases. I think the best thing to do would be to stand pat with our talent. 

What Ned Colleti Has Done To The Dodgers

As I'm writing this I'm watching our very Giants down 3-2 in the top of the fifth and our favorite manager Joe Torre has come out of his dugout dwelling to converse with the one and only Eric Stults on how to attack Rich Aurilla. But something struck me while I was watching the game. The Dodgers, believe it or not have some very good homegrown fixtures in their lineup and rotation (ie Matt Kemp, James Loney, Russel Martin, Andre Either if you count him, Chad Billingsley,Clayton Kershaw and Johnathan Broxton) You can attribute this to a combination of front office fixtures scouting director Logan White, former GM Paul Depodesta, current giants scouting director John Barr or Colleti. The majority of talent was amassed before Colleti got there however with the exceptions of Either whom he directly traded for and Kershaw who was drafted during his regime. While all looks peachy currently in Dodger land it's safe to say "what could have been."

Going over Colleti's trade history there are no glaring holes, though I have the hunch trading switch hitting stud catcher Carlos Santana and dependable future setup man Jon Meloan for a mediocre Casey Blake will be uttered in the same sentence as the Kazmir and Liriano trades. If anything he has done fairly well picking up a dependable run producer, current and future right fielder Andre Eithier for a disgruntled Milton Bradley. And the cherry on top, being the Manny Ramirez trade that put them over the top and is still paying dividends. On this front I'd give the man a B/B+ but once you delve deeper you find disturbing parallels between Colleti and his former boss. (Sabean)

Take for instance the curious case of Jason Schimdt. Two years into his 3 year 47 million dollar contract he has thrown a whopping 25 innings. So up until this point Shmidt (who earns 15.5 million this year in the final year of his contract) has made 31.5 million dollars over 25 ip in two years lets due the math. Thats 1 million 240 thousand per inning. Mind Blowing sure you can say whatever you want about the terrible Zito signing. But at least the guy eats innings albeit at 18 million a year. Then You have the Andruw Jones signing. Oh boy I don't even know where to start on this one. First off Jones is being paid by the Dodgers 18 million dollars a year to play for the Rangers. During his time in Los Angeles Jones, amassed only 3 home runs and 14 rbi's over 238 at bats. Realize, Jones has made twelve million dollars per home run and 2.57 million dollars per home run. In the same period of time the Giants have paid Randy Winn around 17 million give or take the past 4 years. During that time he has amassed 694 hits the past four seasons (counting his half season in Seattle) which means he has been paid around 2,400 per hit. Whereas Jones who collected 33 hits in his only season in LA (which cost the team 36 million dollars) was paid one 1.09 million dollars per base hit. Juan Pierre is in the third year of a 5 year 44 million dollar contract and while it's not his fault he has been releagted to the role of a fourth outfielder. He is making approximatley 14 thousand dollars per base hit, while not terrible compare it to Randy Winn who makes two thousand per base hit and throw in the fact that Winn plays elite defense and you have the superior bargain. 

Ned Colleti is directly affecting the farm system. Yes I said it and I'll say it again. The Dodgers  were ranked 23rd heading into this season and it doesn't look like it's going to get better anytime soon. Sure, the Dodgers have consistently been amongst the top 6 but those rankings were helped by the likes of Matt Kemp, James Loney, Clayton Kershaw, Russel Martin and Chad Billingsley. During those years Colleti had the chance to leave his own thumbprint upon the system but questionable selections such as Preston Mattingly and James Adkins have left the Dodgers system well, lifeless. I'll commend him for his selections of Andrew Lambo, Ethan Martin and Josh Lindbolm looks like a keep but besides that trio there farm system in very unimpressive. I will go as far to say I could have run a better draft. True there's still time to turn thing around but they aren't nearly as aggressive in Latin America as they used to be. The reason why they had to unload Christian Santana along with Jon Meloan is because they couldn't take on a substantial amount of money so the Indians took better prospects in return. The point of the matter is 127 million dollars the Dodgers have spent over the past 3 seasons. For a return of 25.1 terrible innings, 3 home runs and 14 rbi's and for a quality fourth outfielder. The reason why Colleti isn't looked at as a terrible GM is due to the fact that much of the talent the Dodgers are using right now to claim first place in the National League was in place before he ever walked into Dodger Stadium. Their farm system is only getting worse and his terrible decision making has cost them millions, and victories. Either way you slice it......the Dodgers still suck

I"M BACK

Hola' fellow bloggers I'm back and just in time. I'm sorry the hiatus I took was much to long and I'm going to resume regular posting on www.caincecum.blogspot.com. Very much has changed in the past month and a half and I'm able to fully invest my time since I no longer play lacrosse and I'm healthy once again. On the other hand, our Giants are off to a less than inspiring 2-4 start and are currently down 7-1 in Los Angeles to our least favorite team. It's only been six games so there's no reason to hit any sort of panic button but there are some things that I find less than inspiring with some reason to worry. 

Yes, he has only thrown eight innings the whole season but i am a tad worried about Timmy Lincecum. Opening day he wasn't hit particularly hard at all though he did give up 3 runs in as many innings. I wasn't worried one but since his stuff looked great that day. His fastball was sitting 93-95 touching 97 a few times i believe with great tail from right handed batters it would explode before getting to the batter. The only problem was that he had a big problem locating it. When he did find the strike zone with the fastball it was down the heart of the plate and straight. Much like his fastball his curveball had similar problems. It was breaking 12 to 5 but he struggled to find the strike zone with it consistently so hitters would lay off. His change was his most reliable pitch and leaned on it heavily. Again his stuff was there his command wasn't and he had just struck out 8 Oakland A's albeit in an exhibition game a week prior. Then I watched his San Diego start yesterday and was generally concerned. It's true you never want to see back to back starts where your staff ace struggles but when it's your 24 year old reigning cy young award winner just coming off a career high in Innings last season you only get more paranoid. What I saw in yesterdays start was a flat fastball that continually sat 90-91 with no movement though he was able to locate it. His changeup was largely ineffective and had no depth/fade whatever you wish to call it. His curve was great however and was able to move in it and out of the strike zone effectively. Yes, he did have a better line and struck out 5 batters in 5 innings. And yes it's true that he should have only given up 2 earned runs. But it also scares me a tad that his stuff has been so insistent on this young season. If your looking for another bright spot he has struck out 10 batter in 8 innings. I'm not to worried but like anything there's room for concern. As for the Giants current record they haven't played terribly. Remember there has only been two series thus far and they played great at home against the Brew Crew I'm just praying the play from San Diego doesn't hop on the team plane to L.A.

The thing that is the most troubling however is the Giants starting five. I'm quickly starting to realize that their vastly over rated and resemble the 05 staff. Coming in the 2005 staff was supposed to be the rock of the team. But an injury riddled season by Jason Schimdt, a declining Kirk Reuter, a mediocre season by veteran Brett Tomko, A strong debut by Noah Lowry and spotty spot starters Brad Hennessy and Kevin Corriea led to the teams downfall. I'm a bit worried that after Lincecum And Cain the staff is quite underwhelming. Zito is a fifth starter at best, for the nationals at best. Johnson is still a very effective pitcher WHEN healthy but has battled injuries this whole spring and is showing a big dip in velocity thus far. For a pitcher than has always pitched up in the zone and relied on his fastball slider combination this is a HUGE problem. Sanchez is what he is, a wild card someone who can turn in a seven inning gem with his fair share of whiffs, but he could also turn in a 4 inning Zito job with more hits than Lil Wayne and more walks than a retirement home.  I'm not saying the sky is falling but rather the sky is cloudy. Perhaps I need to step away from the T.V because I've never cared so much but I'm a tad worried. (P.S I plan to go to a S.J Giants game this week to hopefully see Bumgarner and make a post until tomorrow! cya) 

Sanchez...........or Lowry....................that is the question?

Yes Mike, this is your turn. What Mike essentially asked Henry Schulman was what do the Giants do in the event that Lowry not only proves to be healthy but also "out-competes" Sanchez for the fifth starter spot? Well Mike good question because I don't think giantsmanagement has an answer either. At the same time I think we should look at the chances of such a scenario happening. Lowry hasn't proven to be healthy since Auguest of 2007 which in the baseball world is a substantial time. Sanchez on the other hand got the attention o the baseball world by bursting onto the baseball scence with his strong irst half of the season. In which he posted a 3.86 era before the all star break. With 121 strikeouts in 111 inninngs pitched which was good for a 10.1k/9ip ratio. Suprisingly however he finished with 157 k's in 158 innings so yes his rate fell from 10.1k/9ip to a 9.9k/9ips ratio. This shows a slight regression in "stuff" but not one signiicant enough to pin all his troubles on. And his walk rate stayed near the same so it was either his command within the strike zone or B. the league simply adjusted to him as the year went on. I'll take a combination o the two due to the fact that becuase Sanchez only threw 52 innings the previous year compared to 158 this past year it's plenty reasonable to say he could have been worndown. This isn't the only telling story though there are numerous other factors such as defense, park factors ect. One must also look at our current staple of pitching within the organization yes, Alderson and Bumgarner are among the best arms in the minors but at the same time you must realize that between the two of them they have 0 games pitched above high a so though they may have the upside of Scott kazmir and let's say Chris Carpenter(of the top of my head) they are still a very long ways away from reaching it. But, let's assume Lowry returns to his previous form of a 3 starter or so I think it's perfectly reasonable to look to trade Sanchez. With a rotation anchored by Lincecum and Cin for the next couple of the years and perhaps Alderson and Bumgarner as soon as next year it's reasonable to look to adress the other teams needs which is essentially any young position player with upside that is ready to contribute at the major league level. I think we should re-visit this train of thought...........https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=3841533663452622434&postID=8084398248621842699 yes, take out the idea of Burris and replace him with Sanchez and you may be onto something. We have a very crowded outfield due to bad managerial deciscions by.........Sabean to sign Rowand, Roberts ect. but the potential impact bat ofYoung is something we are sorely lacking. The biggest problem i would have with this move is it makes it even murkier how we would get both Shierholtz and Young a substantial amount of at bats but it's defiently something to chew on especially since the twins appear eager to move him as well. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/02/twins-showing-i.html

Mini Mailbag

Hello all, I'm only doing a "mini mailbag" I know I promised to field all the questions from last week's mailbag but it doesn't make sense to answer my own question s. So next mailbag we have I will need other people to field more questions to ask anyway here we go. 

"Dear Henry, Out of the four highest touted Giants prospects whom do you see as the most likely to bust and who would you pick out of Posey, Bumgarner, Alderson and Villalona?) Thanks again I love your blog and love you even more. -Jeremy CA)

Haha Umm, well thank you Jay anyway let me disect your question like a lab rat. Conventional wisdom would point to either choosing Bumgarner or Villalona out of the four due to the fact that there both the youngest and furthest away from the majors. However I think in Bumgarner's case this is less applicable due to the fact that he flat out dominated an age appropriate level for him in low a and giants management is so impressed with him that there supposedly having him open the year in AA with Alderson. ( Bumarner struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings and issued 1 walk for ever strikeout while posting a minor league best 1.46 era so yes the term domination is appropriate. Yes, I agree Bumgarner is far from a sure thing ecspecially due to the fact that he's never thrown above low a and his fastball is much further along than his secondary pitches at this point. At the same token a mid 90's fastball with plus life and control from a 19 year old lefthanders arm is almost as rare as seeing big foot. But let's also forget Bumagrner's secondary offerings aren't chump change either. Bumganrer wasn't abllowed to throw a breaking pitch by his father until he was a senior in high school so the fact that he already has a major league average slider and shows great feel for it and a changeup as well are very promising signs that given the time the slider will be a plus pitch and the changeup at least average. He also has impeccable control having only walked 21 batters in 141 inning this year. For me he's a keeper, Jim Callis and John Manuel of baseballamerica have him as the second  best pitching prospect in the minors behind that Price guy.......) Well I ain't tryna slack or jack but bedtime for this cat I'll finish this question along with Micheal's tm because of our short day good night and good luck

Hey all.....!

Good news the Q and A with Schulman has been posted I couldn't post it directly on this site since I can't copy and paste. (as a way of preventing pirating other's content) so rather than typing it out line by one I posted it on mccoveychronicles.com ..........www.mccoveychronicles.com/2009/2/1/744193/q-and-a-with-henry-schulma

ill answer all the same questions tommorow also think of more questions becuase we have a mailbag comming up with the author of baybridebaseball.com jeff stevens check him out he's pretty accomplished. 

Value

I was talking to a friend earlier today, as usual we were debating prospects and various minor league systems. We then came to a stalemate. The question proposed: "Would you rather have Cahill or Bumgarner?" My A's amigo argued that Cahill was more of a refined product, is more likely to reach that ceiling and also has a substantial ceiling himself. I argued Bumgarner has a significant edge in potential and also has put up dominating numbers thus far to back it up and the argument that "he has a lack of secondary pitches" is baffling considering he's opening the season in AA and he already has a major league average slider and a promising change-up.  This led me to another question......."If you were a general manager and you were given the choice          money aside) to start your career with either the talent in the Giants or A's organization, who would you choose?

Let's dive in at the major league level, at the major league level I think it's safer the two most valuable commodities reside at AT&T park nothing against the A's but Lincecum and Cain are two of the more valued commodities in baseball today just ask opposing general managers. Two starting pitchers that are south of the age 25 and are proven frontline starters at the major league level are scarce. Throw in the fact that one of them just won his first cy young award and is arguably the best pitcher in baseball and the other has emerged as a strong #2 and has not even yet realized his potential and your talking about the San Francisco Giants. On the other side of the bay you have two very different players in Matt Holliday and Justin Duscherer both are veteran players whom have firmly established themselves as all star caliber players. However, Holliday doesn't figure to be in Oakland past this year thus damaging his overall value but it's still substantial enough to net a top prospect a solid back of the rotation starter and a closer. Duscherer isn't quite is valuable but as a number two starter he still figures to have a good amount of value especially given his team friendly contract. Well, this one is clear the Giants have the two most valuable pieces as far as the major league teams are concerned. Look no further than what the A's got in return for Dan Haren, then think of what Tim Lincecum could net the Giants on the trade market. 

Let's not get to ahead of ourselves however, we must realize as a team  you have to take the whole picture into account this favors the A's due to the fact that though they may not have players of tremendous value currently at the major league level they have many young players that could net a decent return..........part 2 TM

Brian Sabean

As everyone here knows over the years I have been one of Brian Sabean's harshest critics however what he has done over the past two years or so has drastically changed my opinion of him and the organization. In my opinion the Giants very well could be in the best shape compared to any other national league organization. Let's put it this way the Giants have without a doubt one of the best farm systems in the game and the wallets to match. The Giant's will likely be one of the least effected teams by the recession because of the affluent Bay Area, there will still be a good amount of fans at games and a fair amount being spent on merchandise. They figure to field a competitive team in 2009 and beyond and a large number of their top prospects figure to at least be in AA by next season. The one glaring problem with the Giants is their lack of homegrown positional talent. But the times are a changing' out of their projected opening day lineup four of the nine were developed by the Giants in Lewis, Sandoval, Ishi and Frandsen. And three of the five members of the rotation were also developed by the Giants. 

The past two seasons Sabean has shown a newfound dedication to the farm system as well. Sabean learned through the years that patching gaping holes on the field with ban-aid veterans was not a consistent way to win year in and year out. Unfortunatley Sabean started this re-building while competing formula about three years to late.  Since putting an emphasis on building from within Sabean has flushed the system with a mixture of high ceiling talent with polished players that are ready to contribute at the major league level. If there's any quip I have with the Giants minor league system, it's the fact that the Giants have drafted "hard sign's" in recent years in the later rounds. My point being is that the Giants haven't really taken a gamble on high school draftees whom declare their going to school or draft eligible college sophomores I believe that you should draft them if there's no better avaiable talent and best case scenario you sign them and add the equivalent of a 1st or 2nd round draft pick to your system worse comes to worse you lose a 20th round draft pick.

As I look at the Giants system as it currently stands there's plenty of reason for optimism I see a possible all star catcher who could put up Russel Martin numbers offensively and whom scouts believe has the tools to be a gold glove worthy defensive catcher. I also see a pair of two teenage pitchers, one who has the chance to be the ace of a major league staff, one who is only a year away from being a member of a major league pitching staff and who can be a frontline pitcher as well. The one thing all three of these pitchers have in common is that they are only a year and a half away from the major leagues. All three are high ceiling talents that have been our system for only a year and a half (Bumgarner, Alderson) and Posey for six months. Given our resources we can also afford to hold onto these players long past their arbitration years ......sorry Jay. All I'm saying is that there's plenty of reasons to hold your head high if your a Giants fan. 

Manny Ramirez and the Gigantes

Yes, I know everyone is tired of hearing about the Giants and Manny Ramirez however, earlier today something very interesting was leaked via Fred Lewis of all people. Bobby Evans the Giants president of player personal assured Lewis that he would be in the lineup regardless of they acquired Ramirez. This would make one figure that if acquired that either Winn or Rowand would be dealt. If given the choice I would prefer to get rid of Rowand because he still has 4/48 million left on his contract and he would seemingly offset the Ramirez acquisition. Most likely scenario I could see is Rowand being shipped to the Yankees who still desperately need a center fielder. I could see a straight up swap Rowand for Swisher (Swisher has a big contract as well) but rather than netting Swisher back in return I would rather just have the Yankees eat the contract and we net a marginal prospect in return. At the same time if we did acquire Swisher for Rowand are lineup could look like this........Winn Renteria Sandoval Ramriez Lewis Swisher Molina Frandsen and the pitcher. That lineup features a lot more "thump" than any we have seen in years but it also features many slow veterans I would prefer to keep the money saved from dumping Rowand and slotting ISHI/Phelps at 1b if we do sign Ramirez. But then again if we do sign Ramirez and dump Rowand and put Winn in center for a year we have a much improved club offensively and if Ramirez signs for 2/36 3rd year club option for 18 mil we come out on top. So we would have a lineup that looks like........Winn Renteria Sandoval Ramirez Lewis Molina Ishi/Phelps Frandsen and the pitcher. Just some food for thought if we dump Rowand, Manny for two years wouldn't be all that bad.

Series of Posts Discussing Giants and the NL West......

is being pushed back due to the fact that, a more appropriate time to do such a series would be Spring Training either way I'm going to make some posts about Angel Guzman and Buster Posey

The Others....

Hello faithful on a slow moving January morning I've decided t try and size-up the competition to really see where our San Francisco Giants stand and the chance of them actually bringing home the NL West Division Title this is going to be a four part series to stack ourselves against the competition today we'll start with the Rock's and see who has the superior: Rotation, Bullpen, Outfield, Infield, Catcher and Team Defense and from there we'll see who the superior team really is. 

ROTATION

This is where we have a clear advantage........LINCECCUM CAIN SANCHEZ JOHNSON zito........compared to Cook, Francis, Jimenez, Marquis, Smith. This is the way I see it the Giants have a clear #1,#2 two very good number 3 starters and a number five starter. The staff also has 3 cy young award winners on the staff and can potentially be the best staff in baseball if things break right it's also very plausible to say Cain, Sanchez and EVEN Lincecum can all take steps forward this season. I see the Rockies staff as a very good number two in Cook another number two in Francis a number 3 starter in Jimenez and two number 4/5 in Marquis and Smith. When it comes down to it theres not much competition let's put it this way in one 3 game series the Giants could throw Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez/Johnson (depending on preference) and the Rocks' would throw Cook, Francis, Jimenez don't get me wrong that's a decent group of arms but the Giants are head and shoulders above in terms of talent and production. Lincecum very well could be the best pitcher in baseball next season and Cain has a very good chance on being better than anyone on the Rockies staff and Sanchez will be most likely close to Cook and Francis in terms of production and perhaps better. There's not much of a debate about this give me the Giants in landslide. ADVANTAGE: GIANTS (on a side note this is how I see the rotation next season) 

Lincecum 18-4 210 IP 255 k's 2.45 era

Cain 15-8 220IP 190 k's 3.45 era 

Sanchez 13-9 185 Ip 175 k's 4.2 era

Johnson 12-10 170 IP 155 K's 3.7 era 

Zito 9-13 200 Ip 135 K  4.55 era

Anyway I gotta Run LAX TIME! Post Tommorow

O' Boy

"NOW BATTING #99 MANNY RAMIREZ!!" Oh Renel your crazy, what are you talking about Manny wearing the creme', orange and black? Wait, what if Renel's right? What if Manny is really roaming left field at AT&T like a water buffalo in search of a watering hole, dare I say fat contract? According to Denver Post writer Troy Renck the Giants have been actively pursuing the Disgruntled Slugger. And have also contacted Scott Boras numerous times. It makes a lot of sense on manny accounts (pun intended) but there are also plenty of reasons why it does not make sense.

As perviously disscussed the Giants have solidifed their bullpen as well as strengthen their starting pitching this offseason. They also figure to upgrade their offense regardles of any moves they make due to the fact that they have defensive liability Edgar Rentira pencilied in at SS (Giants had the second worst offensive output from SS last year only Orioles had worse) they also get a full year of Pablo Sandoval whom they only got 131 ab's out of last year. Aaron Rowand also figures to bounce back from his worst season in multiple seasons and a platoon of Killer Ishi and Josh Phelps figures to be more productive than Bowker/Aurillia. So adding arguably the greatest right handed hitter of our generation to that mix would only strengthen our lineup obviously but, theres a lot to consider.

We currently have an outfield that is more crowded than a community swimming pool on the fourth of July. With Lewis, Rowand and Winn figuring to log the most innings in the outfield and with Roberts and Shierholtz on the bench we already have five outfielders. So, it would be in our best interest to move an outfielder if we were to sign Ramirez. The most obvious piece to move would be Randy Winn who has 1 year left on his contract and has consistently hit .300 while providing above average defense in right field. His value will never be higher after putting up a .306/.336/.426 line to go along with 25 sb's 10 hr and 62 rbi's from the 2 hole. Winn should be able to bring back a B prospect and an organizational filler. At the same time we have to realize Ramirez will most likely comman at leat a 2/32 million dollar contract and most likely an option year if he reaches 1000 ab's in the first two years of his contract or 200 rbi's in 2 seasons in San Fran. Ramirez also brings an average line of .314/.411/.593. At the same time we must realize that Manny's best days are behind him and at 37 he on a steady decline even if he hit 37 home runs and raked in 121 runs and hit .332. I still think it's very plausabile to see him hit .300/.400/.525 with say 30 home runs and 100 rbi's. Which would justify the price tag but given the current glut of outfielders we have I don't know if it's the wisest acquisition ecspecially because let's not kid ourselves Ramirez would be a very short term solution to our great need for a bat. I won't deny the fact that we need a bat like no other but at the same time I'm not convinced it's worth 32 million dollars to pre-maturely try to win not only the west but the world series.
The idea of signing Manny is very intruiging due to the fact that it's plausible to say we would perhaps one of the best teams in baseball once you factor in our pitching. Yes, our lineup would still be hovering average but at the same time I expect our pitching to be well above league average think elite. The ability to throw Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez/Johnson in a 5 game series is as good as any team in baseball can match which instantly makes us serious contenders once we reach the postseason. At the same I have a big problem commiting the large quantity of money we already have to a very short term solution. Lets say we sign Ramirez to a 2 year 36 million dollar contract. We have already commited 21 million dollars to four players that don't figure to fit into our plans beyond next 2 seasons in Johnson (8), Howry (4), Renteria (18) and Affeldt (8) so we have roughly 38 million dollars committed over the next two seasons from these players. And 25 million dollars commited for the 09 season just from these four players. So if you were to add Manny to that mix you would have 43 million dollars commited to next season just from this offseason alone. And don't let me start in about Zito's contract let alone Rowand. My point being, is that were spending a good chunk of change currently and unless you really believe were World Series Contenders with Manny I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole.