A Stalemate

Yesterday I was talking to my friend Jeremy who happens to be quite the A's fan. I was jeering him about the shape the Giants are in comparison to the A's. Naturally he took the bait and decided to make a case that though the Giants may have more valuable pieces the A's have quite a bit of depth. I countered and reasoned that though the A's may have "quite a bit of depth" they lack in quality and the A's couldn't even muster a five player package straight up for Tim Lincecum. This made him appalled he gave me an offer of Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Brett Wallace, Chris Carter and Adrian Cardenas for Tim Lincecum. At first I was taken back to a degree by what I had just said but then I realized that all I had to argue was Lincecum's immediate value to the franchise now and in the future. He reasoned that the Giants aren't playing for this season necesiarily so it's best to build for the future right now. I countered and said the following. Tim Lincecum is under team control through 2012. He currently may be the most valuable commodity in baseball. He is a 25 year old starting pitcher who won a cy young award in his first full season, he's well on his way to arguably another cy young award. He will be a San Francisco Giant barring injury for at least the next three seasons. Due to his level of sustained dominance in his brief career,his youth and health you could argue he should net the biggest return out of any player in baseball. Jeremy is quite aware of Tim Lincecum's value and dominance he then countered with Dan Haren noting that Haren was dealt for a package of five players to of whom would be in the proposed deal. He said that Lincecum and Haren were "quite similar" at the time that Haren was dealt. 

Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum were horses of a different color at the same point in their respective careers. When Dan Haren was 25 he went 14-13 with a 4.12 era with 176 k's in 227 innings pitched. In the midst of his second full season at age 25 Lincecum in currently 12-3 with a 2.18 era he has 191 k's in 156 innings pitched. It was not until age 26 when Dan Haren was even able to be mentioned as a front of the rotation starter let alone a bonafide ace. At age 26 Haren went 15-9 with a 3.07 era he had 197 k's in 227 innings. Lincecum has six less strikeouts in 71 less innings pitched this season. At the time of the trade Dan Haren was under team control for two years whereas Lincecum was for three. During his time in Oakland Dan Haren averaged 7.2 k's/9ip. During his time in San Francisco Lincecum has averaged 10.3k's/9 ip. So no Dan Haren is in no way shape a form a good comparable to the package of talent Tim Lincecum would warrant. Tim Lincecum is a legitimate ace he has won a cy young award, he has made two all star teams in two full seasons. He was the superior pitcher to Dan Haren from a younger age. When Dan Haren was dealt he was dealt with a year less of team control. Dan Haren is now 28 and he has NEVER put up a season in which he is comparable let alone superior to Tim Lincecum. So Jeremy, I'll say this maybe Dan Haren should be a starting point, at best for Tim Lincecum 

"The Giants aren't necessarily going to win this season, they have been in the midst of rebuilding for sometime which is why they should do this trade" Ether. You presume that the Giants aren't going to contend this season or anytime soon. But let's take a look the Giants are tied for the wildcard lead as we speak. So they are clearly in contention. Let's also not pretend like this is a mirage the Giants are anchored by to aces ages 25,24 respectively in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and a 22 year old third baseman with a .938 ops  who happens to be the best case scenario for Brett Wallace. (Who is only 12 days younger than Sandoval by the way.) The Giants also happen to have two of the best five prospects in baseball half a season away so the Giants are not far away from competing at a high level for years to come at all. Let's hypothetically say the Giants do reach the playoffs which is not a big stretch whatsoever. They can throw Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez few if any team in baseball can match that combination this gives you as a legitimate shot as any to win the world series and makes you incredibly dangerous in the postseason. If the Giants were to trade away Lincecum it would set them back for years to come due to the fact that they would not be able to reach the postseason in the next two years possibly due to the fact that they would not be able to replace Lincecum's production for years to come. With Lincecum, Cain, Sandoval producing the way they are the Giants have built a trio of talent that will ensure the Giants the ability to compete year in and year out especially with comparable nearly ready to contribute at the major league level. Trading away the most valuable piece in Lincecum will only further stagnate our ability to compete and eventually win a world series in the coming years. The Giants clearly have a decent staple of young established major league talent at the major league level which is something the A's do not yet have. Which is why one franchise is pushing for the playoffs while the other is dwelling in last place. Not having Tim Lincecum's production this year abd instead having that of Brett Anderson And Trevor Cahill would have created a dramatic dropoff in wins. If your looking for eveidence on how dominant Lincecum has been this season let's put it this way. According to fangraphs so far this season Albert Pujols has been 5.6 wins above replacement for any batter. This figure is the third highest in baseball behind Zack Greinke with 6.4, Greinke trails only Lincecum who has been 6.6 wins above replacement this season the highest figure in baseball. Is Time Lincecum the most valuable player in baseball? Is he the most valuable player in baseball even without considering his contract?  

You cannot possibly accept Brett Anderson as the centerpiece to a starting pitcher that is under team control for nearly the same amount of time that Lincecum is. They were both drafted in 2006. Lincecum made his debut two years prior but if I'm right that means Anderson only has an extra year of being team controlled than Lincecum does. Brett Wallace is a questionable defender at third base and his best case scenario is likely Pablo Sandoval however Wallace is only two weeks younger than our Sandoval and while Sandoval has posted a .938 ops in the majors this season Sandoval, Wallace has posted a .777 ops in the EXTREMELY friendly confines of the pacific coast league. Pablo Sandoval makes Brett Wallace look like Neifi Perez there is no comparison to be made right now. Cardenas is a solid prospect in his own right who put up a good line in the Texas League before being promoted .326/.392/.446 at the same ever since his promotion to AAA he has a.......125/225/225 line thats right folks he has a .450 ops right now through 71 ab's in AAA yes it's a very small sample size at the same time when were trading the most dominant pitcher in baseball and perhaps the most valuable piece in baseball I want a top 5 prospect at least. But to be far, he's a very good prospect who I liken to Jose Vidro in his prime on the other hand. We just gave up a piece in Tim Alderson for a second baseman for the next year as well. This also obviously speaks volumes about the Giants intentions to compete for the next two seasons. If we were to make such a trade you would assume they would have no thought about trading Tim Lincecum correct? If your making this trade you are essentially banking that 3 out of the five players in this deal hit their absolute ceiling. Coming into the year most experts saw Anderson and Cahill as front of the line starters but not true aces like Lincecum. Neither have done anything to dispel these prior thoughts before the season. If you were to acquire Chris Carter and brett Wallace you would have a log jam due to the fact that you have Sandoval firmly entrenched at third base and no DH in the national league as a result these players would lose significant value to the Giants since for the time being only one of them could be in the lineup at once meaning you wouldn't be able to have Wallace and Carter in the lineup at the same time without sacrificing substantial defensive value by having one of them miscast in the outfield at the same time as the other. Besides Brett Anderson the most interesting or sought after piece to me would be Chris Carter due to the fact that he's an impact bat putting up very impressive numbers at first base in the hitting starved Texas league. 

In the end I think this is a slam dunk for the Giants. My point being if I'm Brian Sabean and Mr. Beane calls me and offers me this trade on July 31, 2009 I hide back the laughter and say to him on the phone "let me get back to you." I then run over to Larry Baer, John Barr and Bobby Evans and we start crying out with laughter. I think the point has been made clear however, the Giants clearly to plan to win this season the recent acquisitions of Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez prove that as does their standing in the National League Wild Card race. The team is already built for the future in mainstays such as Lincecum,Cain,Sandoval and Wilson at the major league level. There is also an influx of talent on the way. I also believe I have proven why it would be in the Giants best interests to politely decline this deal as their future isn't far away and in fact it may be in front of us. Trading Tim Lincecum at this moment would lead to a significant drop off in performance as well as putting contention on hold yet again. You could also reason many of the players in the deal are far from sure things and if you were to make such a deal you would want at least one established major leaguer in return. So no Tim Lincecum>Brett Anderson,Trevor Cahill,Chris Carter,Brett Wallace and Adrian Cardenas 

Bay Area Winds........Giants Edition

I'll be the first to admit I was very very keen on acquiring Freddy Sanchez for a variety of reasons. For one our production out of our second baseman has been the worst out of any position in the major leagues this season. i figured whenever you sub a position with a player that has a 2.2 War (win above replacement) for a platoon of players that had a -.7 WAR your instantly improving your club. I figured only 2 everyday position players had a higher ops than Sanchez (Sandoval, Rowand) so we would be adding another major league bat to our lineup in a lineup that is void of many. I also figured Sanchez would come somewhat cheap due to the fact that he had an 8.1 million dollar option for next season. I heard the rumors... Frandsen and Bowker, Frandsen and Guzman. Hey sounded great to me these players are good enough to be major league role players but had no place on our team given the way it's currently constructed. When I heard we acquired Sanchez I thought "sweetness" I was ignorant I didn;t think the great Neal Hunnington would pull such a heist. When I heard we had forked over Tim Alderoson however my voice cracked. Who, What, Where and Why? It made me want to call Mrs. Hunnigton and tell her her son was bullying Mr. Sabean. I'm not saying Sanchez isn't a very legitimate major league second baseman. I also didn't care as much for Alderson as other bloggers due to the absence of a quality major league fastball. I am however weary due to the fact that I believe Alderson could have been a significant piece to add a legitimate middle of the order bat that we so sorely need.....(Victor cough* Martinez) i'm not going to go to into Alderson's scouting report because I have in the past but he did give up 114 hits in only 104 innings....at the same time he had a 35/9 k/bb ratio which is preety damn good. On the contrary opponents were hitting .273 against him. At the same time he still only has a 3.54 era in AA a a 20 year old. The reason why I was always fascinated by Alderson was because of his frame. I always figured at 6'6 219 he had plenty of room to add to his frame and if he were to grow into* a low 90's fastball he could be a front of the rotation starter, Reports from baseballamerica had him mid high 80's which is somewhat disturbing given his performance, his pedigree and his size. At the same time I guess it's the price you have to pay for an all star second baseman which will make us stronger without a doubt for the remainder of this year and next, don't get me wrong.(.....it also appears that all of a sudden our pitching depth has vanished........but thats another story.) To wrap it up I'll say this you have to give something to get something.

Bay Area Winds........

On July 31, 2009 the A's and Giants found themselves in very different positions. The A's were dwelling in last place of the American League West while the Giants were sitting high a top the National league wild card tied with a familiar division foe, the Colorado Rockies. Both teams made two trades a piece leading up to the deadline but had different purposes for making them. The first deal was A's shipping off Matt Holliday to St. Louis for a package of Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortenson and Shane Peterson. In many ways I found this deal to be ironic. ironic in the sense that there was an outcry after the A's had passed up Wallace in the draft a year prior for one Jemile Weeks. Ironic in the sense that he was almost traded to St. Louis the prior off season. This deal is a win win for both teams. For the A's they get a possible impact bat in Wallace. Comming out of the draft Wallace was seen as perhaps the "safest bat" in the draft due to his incredible feel for hitting. He was knocked a bit however due to the fact that he was questionable defensively and was likely to move t first base which would hurt his value due to the fact that scouts thought he had limited power potential due to the fact that he didn't offer much more projection in that his frame was pretty filled out. And rightfully so, while watching the futures game I instantly took note of Wallace's thick lower half which will most likely make his range detoriate in future seasons. He made a couple of routine plays but certainly didn't look the part of a solid major league third baseman he didn't have the smoothest actions and while he may be able to stay there to begin his career I eventually see him making the transformation to first base or DH. On the season Wallace is hitting .284/.364/.432  which is good for a .796 ops while not terrible isn't great either. In all fairness it's somewhat impressive that he's already in AAA. He's still getting on base at a decent clip but his strikeouts are a bit of an issue he currently has 81 in 103 games while I'm nitpicking a bit it's something to look for as we go forward I wouldn't quite promote him to the big leagues yet but I would be more willing to do so once rosters expand in September. Something else of note is that his BABIP for his career is .357 and his BABIP in Memphis before the time of the trade was .341 so I wouldn't say his step back from last season was a regression at all but that this is a more realistic indicator since his BABIP has come down a bit. I would still say I think Wallace can be a .300/.380/.480 player which is quite a valuable offensive contributor. They also received Clayton Mortenson in the deal. Mortenson was a supplemental first round pick out of Gonzaga in 2007. When drafted I saw him as an intruiging arm comming from a small school such as Gonzaga baseball speaking scouts thought he would need a bit more time to develop than most college pitchers in the first round. He hasn't developed slowly at all but sometimes his results aren't as good as one would think. He has a good 90-93 sinker with good late life and can dial it up to around 94 but then it flattens out. He also throws a slider that can be an outpitch as times but he struggles to find consistency with his third pitch his changeup this prompts many scouts to think he'll windup in the bullpen eventually. At the same time thats not all that bad, I figure he'd have a hard time cracking the Oakland rotation for years to come anyway. He does come with his fair share of red flags however, His whip in Memphis was 1.44 and so far in Sacremento in an extremely small sample size it's 1.77 so he's letting a lot of runners on base. Opponents are also hitting .284 against him so he's proving to be quite hittable .285 off of him. He's an interesting arm don't get me wrong but I see him as more of a reliever than a starter. Shane Peterson is an interesting player the 2nd round pick out of Long Beach State has played all over in his brief career 1b/rf/lf/cf he reminds me a bit of former Dirtbag and current Giants product John Bowker. He's somewhat similar to Bowker in that he profiles as a a corner outfield that will have to hit for substantial power to hold his value. He was promoted by the Cardinals earlier this season out of the Florida State League where he was only slugging .428 but in the Texas League he's only slugging .405.  I believe he could be similar to Bowker in the since that Bowker had stagnated until a promotion to AA and so far Peterson is putting up a .324/.390/.486 line in Midland albeit 9 games but you never know.......