Big Dick Part 2

As I was saying a move to AT&T park will only help Johnson and it's not unreasonable to expect his era to dip lower to around 3.7-3.8 and thats a fairly conservative assumption to make. Because it's clear this helps us from a win now perspective let's look at the financial side as well as the future implications. 

The only thing that stings is that Johnson is slated to make 8 million dollars guarenteed I was under the assumption that a one year 6 million guarentee with say 2.5 million in incentives would get the deal done because Johnson is from Walnut Creek he's no longer a 10 million dollar a year pitcher (which he could make with bonus incentives) and the fact that he's 45 led me to believe 6 million dollars is generous enough to grant to a 46 year old pitcher. However, Johnson will undoutebly bring in large streams of revenues from merchandise sales and ticket sales. He will be a huge draw due to the fact that not only is he from nearby Walnut Creek but he also five wins shy of 300 wins in his illustrious hall of fame career and will most likely be pitching his final season all leads me to believe that he could actually come close to paying off his contract. 

When it comes down to it, this makes a ton of sense for the Giants, it gives them probably the best rotation in the NL West (future post) and perhaps the entire national league. Johnson is signed to a one year deal and will not block either Alderson, Bumgarner when there ready and propels this team from probable division contender to a team that strikes fear in Tommy Lasorda's heart. 

I'm Back In Time To Welcome ...........

The "Big Unit" to San Francisco! Wait what? Let's break this down like a cardboard box......... We now have a rotation featuring 3 former cy young awards, (which will later on become a trivia question down the road.) But trivia aside was this a good use of Hamilton's for our beloved San Francisco Giants?

Our rotation now sounds like a fantasy baseball melodrama with Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Johnson and the other guy........ZITO. That gives us the potential to be as strong 1-5 as any other team in the league because even as much as we all "strongly dislike" Mr. Zito he's still an above average #5 starter albeit one that pulls in 18 million dollars per year. There has been some scuttlebut going around the baseball world saying Johnson "fell off" his last album unlike Dr. Dre wasn't the chronic (sorry i had to) at the same time of course he isn't the 97 mph fastball slider that makes you want to cry dymano at age 45. But, he can still throw 89-93 touching 94 with good tilt on the old breaking piece and a decent splitter. And according to ESPN's Keth Law he struck out 22.4% of opposing batters last year which was well above league average. 

Lat year Johnson went 11-10 with a below average league era of 3.91 and 173 k's. In the very hitter friendly Chase Field. Also remember the league average era was 4.32 for starting pitchers last year. What else is great is Johnson has developed impecable control as he has gotten older and only walked 41 batters of 181 innings last year which leads to a 4.2:1 k/bb rate. A move to AT&T park should only help his numbers to because Johnson has become a fly ball pitcher due to the fact that he's lost tilt on his slider and zip on his fastball which he has always thrown up in the zone anyway...................bed-time part 2 tommorow 

I'll take suggestions

to what people want me to write about. Open to all of baseball not only the Giants also I'm going to have a new column in which I answer the Giants mailbag on Monday's to

NL WEST DREAM TEAM

Hello everyone, it's Henry comming at you live on Monday morning from my room I'm sick so I'm obviously not at school. Without further ado let me propose to you my NL WEST dream team! I came up with this idea while talking to our very own Micheal Mcclure. This team should be built to win now and in the future you can fill out 1 25 man roster however you want. 

C- Russel Marrtin Chris Ianetta CO

1b. Adrian Gonzalez SD

2b. Emmanuel Burris Sf 

SS.Troy Tulowitzki CO, Stephen Drew AZ

3b.Kevin Kouzmanoff SD, Ian Stewart CO

1f.Connor Jackson AZ, Fred Lewis SF 

Cf. Matt Kemp LA, Chris Young AZ

rf.Justin Upton AZ, Andre Eithier LA

SP.Tim Lincecum SF

SP.Brandon Webb AZ

SP.Clayton Kershaw LA

SP.Matt Cain SF

SP.Chad Billingsley LA

RP.Manny Corpas CO 

RP.Huston Street CO

RP.John Broxton LA  

RP.Hong-Chi Kuo LA

RP.Alex Hinshaw SF

RP.Sergio Romo SF

CP.Brian Wilson SF

 

Thats all she wrote! for right now folks either way, I'll make a minor league dream team NL west style to make us feel better. I also encourage other fans to make ones of their own divisions (cough, cough J AL west?) And yes I had a few biased picks but there's also no good 2b in the Nl West

C.C Sabathia and Sharks

Welcome everyone to the latest blog post on Brian Sabean's Successor today's topic you ask.......? What better than C.C Sabathia! But rather than pure speculation we now have very valid reason to believe the Giants are preparing to open their wallets and let those Hamilton's free. According to our friend Andrew Baggarly who said according to Tony Jackson Giants officials are extremely confident there going to sign  Sabathia. Now, where do we go from here......

Before you Say Lincecum, Sabathia, Cain and the other two (Sanchez.........Zito) sound all peachy think about this. Let's say we sign Sabathia to a six year 120 million dollar deal. Zito would still have 5 years and 98 million dollars left and Rowans with 4 years 48 million. So we would still be paying Zito and Rowand a combined 30 million dollars over the next 4 seasons add Sabathia to your tab and your on the hook for 3 players making 50 million dollars a year or in other words half of your payroll. Or in other words you would have 8% of your roster earning approximatley 53% of your payroll assuming it's around 95 million a year. I say don't sign Sabathia in all caps. The Giants have already made two "Giant" mistakes it's best to led the contracts bleed out over the years than try to salvage them by making another mega-deal. But let's say you must sign Sabathia let's say Sabean decides it's the best way to keep his job while also trying to improve ticket sales this is what you should do. 

Trade Rowand as soon as possible and get rid of the remaining 48 million dollars. (He has a partial no trade clause this year don't know to which teams though) Trade him for anything you can find, if you want a true center fielder in return swap him for Brian Anderson as mentioned in previous articles but due to the Giants log jam in the outfield I say trade him for a bullpen arm: D.J Carassco and a polished low ceiling arm like Adam Russel. This way it would essentially be like signing Sabathia to a 6 year 72 million dollar contract.  This way you would have Sabathia and Zito making 30 million dollars a year as opposed to Zito and Rowand still not pretty but this duo would be much more productive. 

Suppose you take the philosophy of "Let's trade Sanchez for a young high ceiling bat" (which I wouldn't) but let's say you do. You turn around and ship Sanchez, Burris and.......Henry Sosa to the Nationals for young slugging 3B Ryan Zimmerman. You could then move Sandoval to 1B and do with Ishikawa as you please. The Zimmerman deal may look a tad out there but when you think of it, it could make sense on a number of levels. The Nationals have no starting pitching (save Scott Olsen) and Sanchez has front of the rotation potential. They also have no heir apparent to SS or 2B which are being currently filled by the likes of Christian Guzman and Ronny Belliard which screams for a pre-mature filming of "That 90's Show" and with Sosa they get a nice young high ceiling arm who could either turn into an ace or turn into a relief ace. One must also remember that Zimmerman just hit arbitration this winter....he's going to cost a pretty penny very soon. 

With all these changes you could have this Lineup: 

1.Winn CF 

2.Renteria SS

3.Zimmerman 3B 

4.Sandoval 1B 

5.Molina C 

6.Lewis LF 

7.Nate Killer Schierholtz RF 

8. Frandsen 2B 

9. Lincy/C.C/Cain/Zito/Lowry or cheap 5th starter

Winter Meetings.........DAY 1

           Well, well, well it's the end of the first day in the winer meetings and shockingly the giants haven't signed another player! (Buh dum dum chh) Cheesy punch lines aside the first day came and went without any earth shattering news, though there was plenty of speculation. According to our friend Andrew Baggarly the Giants touched base with 25 other teams to discuss the avaiability of numerous power hitting position players. Thankfully we have also learned the Giants have never and will never inquire about the avaibility of a Miguel Tejada and Paul Konerko. We have also learned that team after team has inquired about the possibility of Senor Sanchez playing for their team next year. This has made me come to think of the value that Sanchez really has. One could argue he has the upside of a number 2 starter and that his struggles in the 2nd half can largely be attributed to the 106 IP increase from the previous year. 

          This has also convinced me to believe that perhaps it's best to stand pat unless a oppurtunity presents itself. We came into this offseason looking to solidify our bullpen. Check. We came into this offseason looking to get more production out of our SS which was an MLB worst last year. Check We came into this season looking to add a legitimate middle of the order hitter? Not so much...... at the same time I look at it this way in order to add another check to the list we would have to deal from an area of strength , our starting pitching. If we were to trade Jonathan Sanchez our starting pitching would go from good to very mediocre faster than an Eugenio Velez stolen base. If Sanchez were to depart we would have a rotation consisting of Lincecum, Cain, Zito, ?, ?. As you can see the two 4,5 starters would be unknown quantities meaning I have no clue who they would be. Also, where would the acquired slugger play? Presumably 3rd base but thats where Pablo Sandoval looks to be entrenched for at least next season. Move him to 1st base and you never get to see if Travis Ishikawa's resurgence was for real. Can't trade him for an outfielder because we have more outfielders than we already know what to do with which leads me to tomorrows post trade Aaron Rowand..........

Winter Meetings...........EVE

Hello ladies and gentleman, boys and girls I would like to welcome you all to the Winter Meetings Las Vegas edition. This year I expect a flurry of trades and early signing that will blow open the quiet market. This year the most active team thus far has been your very own San Francisco Giants whom have already signed 3 free agents and are actively discussing many other avenues. (Cantu, Blalock, Encarnacion, Hermidia and last but not least C.C Sabathia)

I will go on record and say this will be the most important week of the offseason for the 09 San Francisco Giants and possibly the most important week of Brian Sabean's career becuase, if he flops this year he's gone. The winter meetings are so exciting and important for a variety of reasons. First off if anything substantial is going to happen the remainder of this offseason it will happen here. Though there may be no announced trade or signing the paramters of the deal will be discussed at these meetings. Remember Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain for Alexis Rios anyone?

For once the Giants go into these meetings with an abundance of buzz. Because the Giants have already signed 3 free agents and are discussing many potential trades they will have many eyes upon them come tommorow. I expect the Giants to move swiftly as well I wholeheartedly believe that if Sabean and his posse feel a deal is right senor Sanchez will be pitching in a different zip code come next season. A dealing of Emmanuel Burrris would also not surprise me for a number of reasons. It seems the Giants never saw Burris as the heir apparent to SS and with Frandsen and Velez there who has a very similar tool set Burris is as expendable as ever and his value may never be higher. Perhaps this is just wishful thinking, not becuase I want to see Burris leave the Orange and Black but because I see a fit: The Minnesota Twins are in search of a young cheap SS whom they can control for a very long time. The Giants are looking to hoard talent at practically any position and have stated they would like more power production from their corner OF bats. Delmon Young has been made very avaible by Twins General Manager Bill Smith. With a Minnesota OF that consists of Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and Micheal Cuddyer Twins Manager Rod Gardenhire has made it known that Young, is seemingly the odd man out. What baffles me is that for only being 22 Young has been very productive he has averaged a .292 average with 12 hr and 81 rbi's in his first two seasons and can realistically turn into a .300/.360/.540 30 hr 120 rbi monster in right field. He has more potential than potentially that whole OF save perhaps the speedy Gomez. The most two similar players  through age 22 are Carl Yastremski and Tris Speaker both hall of famers.( I'm not saying Young is going to be a hall of famer I just think it's of note) 

All of this sounds just peachy but before we purchase our trade for Delmon shirts let's take a step back. The Twins are going to ask for more than Burris without a question it would be silly not to but he is a good starting point. Second the Giants have an already crowded OF with Winn, Lewis, Rowand, Roberts and Shierhotlz in the wings. At the same time I believe the Giants will move two of the outfielders potentially if their inquiring about the avaiabillity of the Marlins Jeremy Hermidia. Another problem being is that before we give Delmon the keys to patrol RF at AT&T shouldn't we give Nate ample oppurtunities? Yes, we should given that his upside is considerable to and he has proven he doesn't belong in the minors anymore for two seasons in a row. If it were up to me we would have a Lewis, Winn, Delmon/ Nate OF with the RF taking a seat when their not playing or letting Lewis or Winn catch a breather or take over RF when one establishes themselves. Boys get ready Christmas is finally here. 

My Top 30 (first 20 today)

Here I present You With my Giants Top 30 Prospects and a brief summary of the system I will go over the list player by player tomorrow. 

NOTE: I would change Fairley to number 10 and Rodriguez to 12 also I'll give my thoughts on the system as a whole tomorrow along with the final 10 i need my sleep..........any thoughts, questions or comments?Fire away 

KEY: $=high ceiling (good regular or better 1/2 starter) , &=low ceiling (utility player 4/5 starter) *=polished (close to majors) , ^=Raw(far from majors)  

TOP 30

#1 Madison Bumgarner- LHP $ ace potential sounds like a wet dream throws 92-97 plus slider average change struck out 164 k's in 141.1 innings with a 1.46 era

#2 Buster Posey- C $* all star catcher potential highly athletic C who moved off of SS well above average arm also used to pitch could be russel martin 2nd best C in minors

#3 Tim Alderson-Rhp$*  2 starter potential throws plus curve and fastball shaky changeup sits 90-93 but his 6'7 220 frame makes one think he could add some oomph to the fastball very projectable still

#4 Angel Villanona-1b$^  perrenial all star potential hit most home runs on low a team as 17 year old has prodgious power could realistically be .280/.370/.500 35-40 hr 100 rbi

#5 Nick Noonan -2b $^ above average 2b think .280/.360/.425 12 hr 60 rbi's 20 sb's

#6 Connor Gillapsie-3b/2b * not going to say high ceiling, but can be a Bill Mueller type may have to move off of thirs becuase of erratic arm

#7 Travis Ishikawa-1b^ could expect line of .265/.335/.465 20 hr 70 rbi great defender at 1b I believe should be handed the keys next year ultimate potential is maybe .280 25 hr 80 rbi's but thats a very big if

 #8Henry Sosa-RHP$^ Merkin Valdez's evil brother  has high injury risk, could be dominant 2 throws absolute gas 93-95 with a lollipop curve average slider and feel 

for change but can't stay healthy

#9 Roger Kieshenck-RF$^ a college player but still very raw has potential for 30 bombs but also 150 k's runs well has good arm. Led Hawaiin Winter league in Home Runs and...........strikeouts 

#10Rafeal Rodriguez-RF$^ definition of raw but talented has been compared to young vlad signed for 2.1 mill. Scouts question his ability to hit for average due to long swing again extremely raw but may have more potential than Angel V becuase he can play a sound rf

#11Kevin Pucetas-RHP & throws high 80's to low 90's has average pitches fastball curve changewith decent movement and control can be number 4 if things break right for him

#12 Wendell Fairley-CF$^ Where do I start? more tools than Home Depot and also my facebook friend. Center fielder drafted out of high school with plus tools across the board 5 tooler but lacks "skills" or polish at this point. May have been drafted in top 10 if not for inicident where he hazed a freshman baseball player. Jim Callis of BA has said that he could be a middle of the lineup gold glove center fielder. Also had college football scholarships from top Universities to play wide reciever so much talent it's ridiculous.   

#13 Brandon Crawford SS$^ comes from major college baseball program but still had significant problems with making consistent contact but when he did he showed plus power and has good bat speed. A good athlete he shouldn't have a problem staying at short could be .260 20 hr 70 rbi 12 sbs

#14 Aaron King LHP$^ Think Jonathan Sanchez! throws low 90's and can reach back and hit mid 90's when the ladies are around throws promising curve and a rough change. Drafted in the 7th round this year out of a JUCO went un-drafted out of high school previous year which is an oddity for someone to improve that much. Has 1st round tools but little known track record due to recent emergence as a prospect my personal favorite/sleeper!

#15 Thomas Neal OF$^ probably to high for most fans taste but I'm a big fan of the burly outfielder, had a lot of hype after singing as a draft and follow in 2005 but has been injured often but still just turned 20. Has strong arm, doesn't run as well as he used to and has plus power. 2nd on the Greenjackets in home runs this year expect a breakout next year as he goes to the California league.

#16 Jesse English LHP^(Not high enough ceiling to justify ranking of a $ but still considerable if he regains stuff this year will be a $) Lefty with a very interesting background, same draft class as Matt Cain and actually outshined and outperformned Cain in the arizona league used to throw mid 90's with plus slider feel for a change. Conditioning became an issue and he was never fully healthy until this season. Throws low 90's gas with average slider curve and a plus changeup. succesful do to plus control but, if he regains stuff he can become a force to be reckoned with again. 

#17 Ehire Adrianzia SS$^($due to defense) young 19 year old dominican SS with great defensive skills plus range arm and instincts but is currently lagging behind though. Came over to the U.S this year and hit .286/.382/.482 .............sounds great! but in only 66 ab's an eye to keep on in the future will never develop much power but may hit 10 hr's one day

#18 Clayton Tanner* Lefty who doesn't go anything great bu also does nothing poorly resembles Noah Lowry in many ways due to average pitches across the board besides plus change and gets by on pitchability (studying hitters, pitches to contact ect) 

#19 Joey Marinez RHP &* Drafted out of Boston College in 05 Martinez is the younger version of Steve Trachsel unfortunatley has absolutely no above average pitches but has amazing control and is a groundball specialist has done great at every level of minor league baseball and will get a shot somewhere but probably not with the Giants. Watched him pitch in 07 and he looked like a 5th starter or short reliever at best 

#20 Charlie Culberson^ (could be a starter or utility player as ceiling, ceiling undefined) very raw very rough, when THE G-MEN made Culberson a first round pick in 07 many were surprised due to the fact that he was seen as a slight overdraft but he rewarded them after signing and hit .282 in rookie ball. Oh the difference a year makes, Culberson stuggled mightily this year offesnsively and defensively at low A Augusta before being sidlined for the year with a broken wrist, true it was his first exposure to full season ball but at the same time it's disheartening to see a stepback from a talented youngster I could see him being a utility player at this point along the lines of Ramon Martinez   

Edgar Renteria

If you claim to associate yourself with the Giants you would know rumors were flying around today that we had signed Edgar Renteria to a two year eighteen million dollar contract. At first I was infuriated why was Sabean signing a rapidly declining 32 year old shortstop? The other increasingly baffling part was that Sabean was signing Renteria a week away from the arbitration deadline, why would Sabean sign a Type A free agent before the team can even offer the particular player arbitration ( this would ensure the Tigers our 2nd round draft pick due to the fact that we have the number six overall pick  in order to have your first round draft pick protected you must have a record among the fifteen worst in baseball if you sign a type a free agent before their previous team can offer them arbitration or sign the type a free agent after the team has offered them arbitration.)? After thinking for a good chunk of time I came to the conclusion that the value a team would get in return from signing Renteria compared to Furcal would be astronomical. 

First of all the latest rumored "high bidder" for Furcal is thought to be the Braves whom are rumored to be offering a 4 year deal worth 52 million. The Giants so called offer stands at 2 years 18 million but he would also probably accept a 3 year 21 million dollar deal.  Furcal's contract comes out to around 13 million on average over 5 years whereas Renteria comes out to only 7 million over 3 years, a whole lot less risky considering the fact furcal only played in 36 games last year. 

Over his career Furcal has averaged 11 r 66 rbi's and a .286 average which is not shabby at all. as well as .353 obp and .412 slg resulting in a line of .286/.353/.412 but, with stellar defense. Renteria on the contrary has averaged 11 hr 72 rbi's a .290 average and an obp of .347 and a slg% of .405  which = a line of .290/.347/.405. Oddly how remarkable similar the two players are huh? 

Both players have their fair share of questions marks though, Furcal is comming of an injury plauged season and his defense has regressed a bit. Renteria is comming off a season where he hit a very low (for him) .270 and only drove in 55 runs but also made 9 less plays than the average ss according to the fielding bible. At the same time I found it remarkable how similar last years stats were for Renteria compared to his previous only trip to the AL with the Red Sox in 2005 Renteria hit .276 with 8 hr and 77 rbi's before being shipped back to the National league where he hit .296 with 14 hr and 76 rbi's. You have to remember prior to going to the Tigers he hit .332 12 hr and 57 rbi's. And last year he hit   .270 10 and 56. Again I don't expect the guy to hit .332 next season but I definetly think .290 12 and 65 is well in reach, which would be great offensive output from the ss position for us, only the orioles has worse production from the ss position last year. I think much of his regression last year could simply be attributed to playing in the American league similarly to what happened to him in 2005. 

Over the last five years Renteria has 54 home runs compared to Furcal's 53. Renteria has average 64.2 Rbi's over the last five seasons compared to Furcal's 48.3 (albeit he only played 36 games last year but that's still a difference of about 8 rbi's per year had he been healthy) And lastly Renteria has averaged a .291.6 average the last five years while Furcal has hit, .284.4. As you can see not only is Furcal the much more expensive riskier option, but he has also not been as consistent or performed as well as my new friend Edgar Renteria. At the same time I truly do believe the Giants have a deal in place for Renteria but don't want to announce it out of fear of the Tigers offering Renteria arbitration to claim the Giants 2nd round pick I expect the deal to be announced sometime soon after December 2. I commend Sabean and the organization if this is the case for making a great decision they very well could be gaining the greater offensive player for half the price. Thank you

Q and A with Giants Beat Writer Andrew Baggarly

Hey guys here you go Mr Baggarly was nice enought to answer our q's and like to thank him for giving his time. Either way here ya'll go! Also visit his blog: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs/

#1 From James in Larkspur, CA
1. Do you have any memories of Jt Snow?
I only covered the end of J.T.'s career, but the best memory I have is a catch he made at Wrigley Field in 2004. It was a foul pop and he had his back to the infield and flopped Jim Edmonds-style while making the play. It's got to rank among the best plays I've seen, and the best he's ever made. I'm sure he remembers it, too, because he tore a knee ligament on the play and a few weeks later he had to undergo surgery. J.T. is a classy guy and it's no surprise the Giants wanted to keep him in the organization as a coach and broadcaster. Oh, the Darren Baker save int he World Series ranks up there, too.
2. What is the best type of training for a sports beat writer like yourself?

If you really want to cover a beat, you've got to be able to write on deadline. The next time you watch a game, pretend you're writing a story and keep revising it as the action happens. You need to be ready to hit "send" as soon as the final out is made. There's no way to prepare for that situation unless you practice it. Also, I'd challenge you to write as succinctly as possible. Make your point and relay your information in as few words as possible. You may think you've got all the answers, but remember, people have short attention spans. It's only valuable information if other people take the time to really consider it. Verbosity can be a problem on the Internet, where you don't have the space limitations of a newspaper.

Writing is only half the job, though. You've got to be a good reporter and have good interpersonal skills. So take time to imagine how an interview would go: What specific questions would you ask? Then be prepared to listen. Don't have an interview script. If you aren't really thinking critically about the answers you get, you won't be in the right frame of mind to ask intelligent follow-ups. Often the story you intend to write becomes far less interesting than the story you get.
3. What is the favorite part of your job?
Being able to write authoritatively on a subject that I love and that interests me. And interacting with interesting people every day. That includes competitors and colleagues. I laugh a lot on the job.
#2 From Micheal in Greenbrae, CA
I Nate Schierholtz I believe is part of the future of this organization. Sabean has said that he doesn't see where he fits in in the future, but I don't understand how Sabean can overlook the fine numbers that he put up in limiting playing time at the end of las t year, as well as consistently impressive numbers in the minor leagues and a great showing in the Olympics. Would you personally rather have Winn, whose Giants tenure is coming to an end in right field to start the year, when we may not contend, or would you rather have Nate playing right? What kind of value could we get for Winn if we traded him now, or at the deadline? Thanks. believe is part of the future of this organization. Sabean has said that he doesn't see where he fits in in the future, but I don't understand how Sabean can overlook the fine numbers that he put up in limiting playing time at the end of last year, as well as consistently impressive numbers in the minor leagues and a great showing in the Olympics. Would you personally rather have Winn, whose Giants tenure is coming to an end in right field to start the year, when we may not contend, or would you rather have Nate playing right? What kind of value could we get for Winn if we traded him now, or at the deadline? Thanks.

That question is Barbieri-esque in its length! I'll use fewer words to answer: Schierholtz will get an opportunity at some point. He's out of options, so he'll have to make the roster out of spring training. Or he could be traded. A talented player will get a shot eventually. As for trading Winn, I don't get any sense this is something the Giants want or plan to do.


#3 Myself Tiburon, CA
I'm at a crossroad's, part of me would love to go and see the giants sign C.C Sabathia in order to give them the most dominant starting rotation and baseball as well as compete=2 0year in and year out because I'm tired of losing. This is my last year in the bay area for quite some time. At the same time giving him the proposed 20 million dollars or so over six years doesn't sound like the greatest idea when you have two other players, (Zito and Rowand) signed to long term contracts that already consume at least a third of the teams payroll. Signing Sabathia would make it so that 3 players earned an annual average of around 50 million dollars which would leave little roster flexibility and would be a problem with Tim Lincecum going through arbitration and making it harder to sign him to a long term deal without totally freezing the vast majority of our payroll in four players. My question is don't you feel it would be better to wait especially when we have numerous potential front of the rotation arms in the minor leagues (ie Alderson Bumgarner, Sosa and Aaron Kings interests me)?

First off, CC will cost more than $20 million a season. You're right, it's a risk to have so much money tied up in two pitchers. But perhaps the Giants don't believe they can lure any premium hitting free agents because of their ballpark. So if the cash is burning a hole in your pocket, you might as well go after a mega-rotation and try to win in a weak division that way. (It's also easier to trade pitching for hitting, though I'm not necessarily suggesting a Sabathia deal would result in trading Matt Cain.) The Giants may not feel they can afford to wait, since ticket sales are dropping off and it's hard to reenergize a fan base after the buzz wears off. Also, don't forget Brian Sabean is in the last year of his contract and he's got a new boss. He's motivated to do more than just coast through another rebuilding year. To answer one of your other concerns, signing Sabathia wouldn't affect the Giants ability to negotiate a long-term deal with Lincecum.
#4 Myself Tiburon, CA
My Giants top 10 list would be:
1.Bumgarner
2.Posey
3.Alderson
4.Angel V
5.H Sosa
6.Noonan
7. Roger K
8. Connor C
9. Rafeal R
10.Fairley/Aaron K (really really like what I hear)
a. what would be yours?
b.Player you deem most overated in the system doesn't have to be on top 10 list
player you deem most underrated?

You'll have to wait till February, when the Baseball America list comes out. We've got a lot of names in common, though.

Danger Will Robinson!

"According to Tony Graziano the San Francisco Giants plan to make free agent pitcher C.C Sabathia an offer of 6 years and 125 million dollars." - MLBTRADERUMORS.COM 

"Wake Up Henry Wake Up" "Hello who goes there?" "Barry........Bonds" "O Mr. Bonds it's been so lonesome without you, the times are troubling the Giants are at a stalemate rebuilding while signing unesecary veterans (yes Zito and Rowand I'm talking to you) that don't seem to play an integral part in our future and don't justify their robust contracts by their performance." "Henry, let me talk to you son when I was a free agent in 1992 and signed with the giants do you know what their record was the previous year?" "Why yes the Giants went 70-92 just like the 2008 Giants and finished fourth in the division also just like the 2008 Giants." "Well Henry you took the point of the story right out of my mouth adding a bona fide slugger or ace never hurts, you know we ended up winning 102 games the following year" "Why gee thanks Mr. Bonds!" "Don't mention it" 

It's finally happened the giants have finally pushed that red shiny button, the one that you see in Austin Powers to release the shark's with laser beams attached to their heads. So what exactly are we getting ourselves into? Or what are we getting ourselves out of?" Before you utter a word from your quivering lips imagine a rotation of: Lincecum, Sabathia, Cain, Sanchez and the other guy........Zito. This rotation would feature 3 cy young award winners. Three pitchers under twenty six that have the potential to be at least number 2 starters. This would be the best rotation in baseball for many years to come. This rotation would greatly compensate for our troubled offense and put less pressure on our suddenly formidable bullpen. In 2008 the San Francisco Giants threw the fourth fewest amount of innings in all of baseball.

In 2009 the San Francisco giants very well could throw the least amount of innings in all of baseball. 

To sign Sabathia, or not to sign Sabathia that is the question. C.C Sabathia over the last two years combined sports a 36-17 record with a 2,95 era and 460 k's in 490 innings. The 6'7 250 native of Vallejo is the definition of a workhorse and an ace. He also is only going to be 28 all of next year so assuming we sign him to a six year deal we will have him for his prime seasons. (Normally ages 28-32) We all know C.C is a great baseball player a true staff ace and if you pair him with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum the trio would wreak havoc on the league, at the same time should we really allocate 126 million dollars for yet another pitcher when we did so two years before? And the returns thus far have been short of inspiring? Lincecum and Cain are going to go through arbitration soon and must be locked up to long term contracts. 

The 2008 San Francisco Giants have 57 million dollars currently dedicated to the 2009 payroll. (according to Tom Hardcourt of jsonline.com) Most players on the team are making around league minninum due ti service time besides Zito, Rowand, Winn, Roberts, Molina and Afeldt. Also, Roberts, Molina and Winn contracts come off the books after next season so there's 20 million right there. The Giants would still be with Rowand,Zito and Sabathia for the next four years at an anually average of 51 million dollars per year and they have also told Sabathia's agent they plan to go after free agent shortstop Rafeal Furcal even if they sign the burly lefthander. At the same time I find it quite troubling that the Giants could seemingly have so much money invested in 3 players. Which would leave them with little roster flexibility or in the future could prevent them from signing homegrown players to long term contracts. At the same time the Giants are finally out of the red (from the ballpark) and have began to make large amounts of profit that coupled with the fact that they only had a 76 million dollar payroll probably saved them at least 30 million dollars. Assuming they made more than 10 million in profit and the fact they usually have around a 95 million dollar payroll. Which would also cause one to believe that there payroll can be substantially higher than it has been in the past because our debts have been paid off. 

Without a doubt in my mind signing C.C Sabathia could transform us into an immediate contender next year as well as the next couple of years. We figure to have the best rotation in baseball, with the most upside a decent bullpen and an improved but still well below average offense= a winning team. Our pitching will keep us in every game if we sign C.C and the addition of Furcal maturation of Lewis a bounceback from Rowand and a year with Pablo "thinder thighs" Sandoval in the year equal a much improved offense that could produce more runs than one would think. 

Now time to put myself on the spot "Henry would you make the deal?" Had you asked me earlier in the offseason I would have answered with a resounding no , however given some logical thinking I would now resound with a resounding yes!" Let's face it I HATE LOSING so much that I have come to trick myself that losing is acceptable as a way with dealing with the current situation which is probably why I have become so obsessed with the minor leagues to distract me from the fact that we have been pounded by the likes of the dodgers for the last four years in the row. I have also come to the realization that given the Giants resources and amount of talent in the minor leagues we can be a sustained winner and we could afford to make these types of moves even in the midst of mediocrity. We are going to be good very good, very soon once the likes of Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson arrive we will be able to make a claim that we have the most talented home grown ML tema in the entire national league. With a rotation that consists of C.C Lincecum and Cain we could win the Nl West with that type of a pitching staff we could win the world series as soon as next year.

Good News!

We have an interview lined up with Giants beat writer Mr. Andrew Baggarly, he write for the San Jose Mercury news and even personal favorite Baseball America and even has his own blog which I frequently read. This is very cool for me because it's the equivialent of collaborating with Lil Wayne for me. he even had a vote in the NL MVP ballot this year either way everyone can submit one question to ask him and I'll post the results via email when they come........must be about the Giants Organization ML, Minors, Front Office, Free Agency Ect 

his blog: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs/

This Week

Sorry everyone I wasn't able to finish up with the "Henry Plan' tonight the unexpected signing of Affeldt was more important in my opinion and I also have my homework to do like anyone else either way, hopefully I'll get to the Henry Plan Tuesday and I have some interviews possibly lined up for later in the week. Sleep easy giants fans we hit a home run today. 

Confusing?

You know what's odd? A fairly prominent free agent has already signed just three days since the free agency period began. You know what else is odd? It was a reliever signed by the Giants. A move that is truly baffling considering we desperately needed a reliable late inning workhouse in our bullpen. Which means Brian Sabean made a great move? Wait that's an oxymoron but Brian Sabean did the impossible and actually made a sensible move. Which is a lot to say considering our last two free agent signings..........cough cough Zito? Rowand? On Friday November 17th Brian Sabean inked free agent Reliever jeremy Affeldt to a two year eight million dollar contract. For a reliever that sounds like considerable money and it is, but let's take a look at Affeldt's body of work. 

Yes, he has an ugly 4.55 era but consider that this is greatly inflated due o his days as a member of the Royals rotation since making his move to the bullpen the guy has been lights out. The last two years as a member of the Colorado and Cincinnati bullpen he has posted era's of 3.51 and 3.33 respectively and also appeared in a total of 149 games which is an average of 68 and a half games over those last two years the true definition of a workhorse. You may be concerned that he's been overworked but I say say nay! Here's why up until the second half of 2006 he was a starting pitcher so he surely has the endurance to pitch in these games.  He only threw 137 innings the past two years which is a far cry from the 194 innings he threw in 2006. Also consider the fact that he's been pitching half his games at Coors and Great American ballpark which have been known to take pitchers as their prisoners. Also you could expect him to put even better numbers than last year if his road numbers serve as a telling sign. On the road he held opposing batters to a .203 average and a .573 ops (obp plus slg) ladies and gentleman those are Brian Bocock numbers! Also eh's a true power pitcher whose average fastball is 94.1 mph according to fangraphs.com my favorite part is that he struck out a ghastly 9.7 batters per nine innings last year. Guess what? That's the second highest on the Giants! Tha's right go crazy folks go crazy! We all know he who shall not be named is first but he even beat out Brian Wilson and his bazooka fastball. (9.21/per 9)

Folks I pleased to say this is truly a very, very intelligent free agent signing I tip my hat to you Brian Sabean for being quick and moving in on the prey. I also must admit this signing whomps my "wishlist" signee Joe Beimel whom I like but I put up there because if they Giants had signed him it  would have made me look very intelligent. I must say followers, fans and close friends our garlic fry money was put to good use.

Henry's Plan

The giants are in a weird position this offseason, like a teenager going through puberty their uncertain what the future has in store for them, their also confused with their own identity. The giants are anchored by a powerful trio in the front of the rotation and they don't have much else(at the ML level) save Brian Wilson (pun intended) some interesting bullpen arm (Romo, Hinshawand, Matos and Espinelli) and thunder thigh Pablo Sandoval. They should be sotckpiling any young talent they can right now ala the A's and Nationals the past year however, the Giants are confused, very confused. Due to the fact that they play in the mediocre NL West and the fact that they have considerable recources they believe they have enough homegrown talent that they can throw money around and see a pony turn into a thoroughbred. 

First: 

Sign an established work horse reliever for the bullpen perhaps 2 a righty and a lefty. (Joe Beimel and Juan Cruz sounds delicious. 

Second: Unload Aaron Rowand and his contract to the White Sox for:  Brian Anderson? Yes, the numbers are ugly very ugly however this would be seen as a salary dump and the Sox are looking to contend next year so it would not be all that shocking to see them make this type of a move. Also Anderson is young (25) and plays a better centerfield than Rowand, he's a former top prospect with decent potential and maybe just needs a change of scenery? Yes, an obp under .300 makes me think of Neifi Perez to but let's cut our losses and hope we strike gold. 

Third: With the money that was unloaded with the Rowand deal sign Rafeal Furcal to a 3 year 36 million dollar deal with a 4th year club option. less face it, Burris is not a good shortstop on a winning team....................will finish later going to james bond!

2008...........In Review (I'll do pitchers at a later date)

We finished 2008 with a 72-90 record, tied for the sixth worst record in baseball, we only improved by one win at the Major League level and our 18 million dollar man was so bad at one pint he was removed from the rotation. Sounds like the script of major league doesn't it? I dare you to ask me "Henry was this season a success in your mind?" "Did we progress?"I would respond with a resounding yes and yes we did. In my mind this was the most successful season by the bay in quite some time but my friend you must look in between the numbers. 

The player that made the most progress was undoubtably 2008 cy young award winner Tim Linceceum!! Boy that makes me think of opening day............at the same time there were many giants other than the scrawny fire baller who took giant leaps forward. 

Emmanuel Burris! Most don't know this but Burris was a first round compensation pick back in 2006 out of Kent State university. He was taken 37th overall in front of a handful of players in that round who I would rather have Adrian Cardenas, Joba Chamberlain and Chris Coghlan but it's ok because Burris has actually turned out to be well pretty good. Comming into this year Burris's professional career looked to in Limbo, he had faltered terribly at High Class San Jose prompting the Giants to Send him down to Low A Augusta where he dominated the competition but still some of these players were 18 and Burris was 22. For context purposes this is where Angel Villanona played this year while he was 17 years old. This year was a make or break season for Burris and the giants pushed him harder than Salt n Pepa's 90's hit "Push it." The giants agressively skipped him past high a san jose and aa Conneticut surely developmental death right? NO! Quite the contrary Burris established himself at te major league level he hit .282 in 242 abs and even had a nifty .357 obp his slugging percentage was well a disgusting .387 but you know that's ok he was drafted for his speed (stole 68 combined bases in 07 but only 17 last year at MLB level has the speed to steal 50 consistently) and contact abilities and that's what he's proven to at the ML level thus far. He displayed great discipline and only struck out 24 times and even walked 23 times which is almost unheard of. ( To have 1 less walk than strikeout) At the same token one has to wonder if he can stay at shortstop. Yes, he probably can I'm just making things sound dramatic but it would be a stretch to call him a "good defender" or above average there he is merely mediocre or worse due to his arm. But, he would immediately be a plus defender if moved to second base due to his magnificent range and his arm wouldn't be exposed there.

Fred Lewis legitimized himself as a starting corner outfield for years to come. He put up a very respectable line of .282/.351/.440 which is good for an ops (on base plus slugging .770 is mlb corner of average) of .791. Consider this the giants had a team ops of .707 which is 28th in baseball only the Nationals and the A'S! Consider this Rowand and his 5 year 60 million dollar bag of fun put up this line .271/.339/.410 which = an ops of.............(drum roll) .749? Eww! sure he's playing center field which definetly relaxes the expectations of his offensive putout because the position emphasizes defense but still a 2nd year player (barely missed rookie eligibillity) had a far greater offensive output?  Let's take a look at Randy Winn he put up a line of .306/.363/.426 which = an ops of .789 SNAP! Fred Lewis was our most productive outfielder? That's right ladies and gentleman Freddy was the best at getting on base and slugging the crap out of the ball (Extra base hits essentially) If it were up to me/if I were Brian Sabean both Winn and Rowand would be on the way out of town.............but that's a future post..............regardless of which as you can see we have finally produced a quality major league hitter. First one since dare I say, Bill Mueller? Or you could count Pedro Feliz if your in the mood?

Pablo Sandoval! Talk about "the cream rises to the top" this guy was only known to die-hard giant minor league enthusiasts last year. (such as myself) I remember seeing him play in San Jose in 07 and remember thinking "good bat speed, good level swing that has natural loft, good arm" but then I also remember seeing him chug slowly around the field and thought to myself if he doesn't lose weight he can't stay at catcher and the bat isn't good enough to project to 1st base. Boy was I wrong this offseason he dropped 20 somewhat pounds and his bat made opposing pitchers wilt like flowers on the mound. Consider these numbers..... .350/.392/.578 20 hr 92 rbi's those were sandoval's numbers in 112 minor league games! what my friends are Albert Pujols esque, yes, yes Jay before you ruin our excitement those are in the minors but remember minor league numbers are often the best indicator of Major league success. He then went on to hit .345/.357/.490 in 145 abs in the majors it's safe to say he's arrived. I personally think he can become a .320 30 hr 100 rbi switch hitting monster remember he has played 3b in the past and it was his original position when he signed..............thank you for whomever id brave enough to read this far 

p.s FREE AGENT MARKET OPENS IN 4 HOURS AND 16 MINUTES!!! I'll make a free agent plan later ta ta!

Hola

Hey whomever may be reading this, I have some homework I must slay before I can get on to doing other posts later tonight but I have any idea. How about you post a reasonable trade you would like to see your team make and give your reasoning? 

Giants trade: Randy Winn and Kevin Frandsen to the Mets for David Murphy 

First off Randy Winn is 34, his value will never be higher and I believe he is due to make 9 million next year while blocking Nate Schierholtz whom would provide better defense, power and would be much cheaper and we would be able to gauge whether he would be an important fixture in the future. (I put Nate's numbers through a minor league to major league spilts converter and over a full season Nate's number came out to be .283 19 hr and 77 rbi's) Randy Winn will also be gone after next season so may as well trade him and get value for him while we can and we have a potentially better option. 

Kevin Frandsen is highly replaceable and even if he reached his ceiling would figure to be a .270 12 r 60 bri man anyhow with adequate defense and is already 26 while Murphy is 23 and put up an impressive line of .317/.397./473 albeit in 131 ab. But would be able to be an above average 2b. With good range and a stong arm for 2b (currently plays lf played 2b and 3b in past) 

Post Away!

Jake Peavy: Swirling Trade Winds :Braves

Unless you have been hiding under a rock the size of Petco Park you have heard rumors involving jake Peavy and the Atlanta Braves more than once. It's not often that a very recent cy young winner in his prime and under a team friendly contract for the next three years is dealt. Especially to a team that had the sixth worst record in baseball the previous year. All of this along with Jake Peavy's no trade clause make for a very interesting scenario I say it's time to analyze.

The current package is rumored to be Yunel Escobar, either Jordan Schafer or Gorkys Hernandez and either Charlie Morton or Jo-Jo Reyes heading to the Padres. The other team believed to be in serious discussions with the Padres for the Alabama native are the Chicago Cubs whoose package would have to be considered far inferior given the current state of their farm system. 

Yunel Escobar would be a fine centerpiece for the Padres. Yunel is a fine defensive shortstop (and just turned 26) and last year the fielding bible had him as the second best shortstop in baseball behind Jimmy Rollins. According to their data Yunel made twenty one more plays than the average shortstop. Pair that slick glove with ten home runs and fifty one rbi's you find yourself a fine shortstop indeed with an ops that also ranked seventh among all major league shortstops. 

Jodan Schafer is an interesting one. A year ago at this time he was seen as a top 25 prospect by many after combining to hit .314 15 hr 63 rbi's and a nifty 23 sb's on the year. A potential all star center fielder with well above average defense in center (BaseballAmerica says he has plus ranger and a plus-plus arm). But.......things got worse this spring he tested positive for HGH but once he came back played very impressive in AA Mississippi where he hit .269 10 hr 51 rbi's and 12 sb's in little over half a season his obp was up and his slugging was barely down .(.06) Schafer illustrated he still has all star potential out there in center. As a player he does everything average to plus.  

Gorkys Hernandez is the other option in the deal. Gorkys can be a Willy Taveras type player in the future. A center fielder he has strong contact skills but, his knowledge of the strike zone is a re-ocurring problem that keeps him from becoming the player he can be.  He is a plus defensive center fielder due to his plus plus speed which gives him a knack for tracking balls down off the bat. He has a fringy average arm but his speed more than makes up for that. His instincts on the base path are raw so his pure speed doesn't translate to stealing as many bases as he could currently. But in a perfect scenario he becomes a great lead off hitter. .300/370/430 isn't out of the question throw in 40 sb's and thats a dandy player. I would still take Schafer over Hernandez though because in my mind he has a higher upside and is more likely to reach it. 

Charlie Morton has always been an enigma of sorts, he was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft. He struggled greatly in his first 3 pro seasons but once he got to Mississippi a light bulb went off and things clicked. He then went to the Arizona Fall league that year and dominated prompting the Braves and Baseball america to hype him up. Morton throws a 92-94 fastball with late life and can dial it up to 96 when he wants to. He also throws a plus curve that has been described as "nasty" and an average slider and change to fill out his arsenal. He has the potential to be a number two starter but is wildly inconsistent but figures to be a three or at worst fourth starter with flashes of dominance. 

I think this is a fair bounty to pay for three seasons of Peavy. (Though I am confused why they would want to acquire him at a time when they have numerous holes.) If not for the Padres making it none thee trimming payroll or Peavy's full no trade clause I would expect offers to be substantially higher. If I were the padres I would wait until after the free agency period to deal Peavy because chances are teams that lost out on Sabathia, Burnett,  Lowe would focus their attention to Peavy

Matt Holliday and Billy Beane? Sounds dangerous...........

When I first heard rumors of Matt Holliday being shopped around I envisioned the Yankees trying to find a replacement for the free agent bound Bobby Abreu. I then envisioned a package that centered around Austin Jackson to fetch the right handed hitting slugger. Say a package of Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Brad Suttle. When I heard the A's were interested and having on-goings talks I assumed it was just Billy trying to gauge how valuable his own commodities were and thought nothing of it. But then when I saw that headlines I became confused. What was Billy Beane doing? But then the more and more I thought about it the deal made sense. Let's face it.....Billy Beane is a genius and this will be just another example. He seemingly took a centerpiece of the Dan Haren trade coupled that with a throw in of the deal and a two thousand five supplemental pick and turned it into a right handed hitting slugger that has produced along the lines of the Manny Ramirez's of the world in the last three years. In my mind Huston Street is an average to good closer at best last year he blew seven saves in twenty five chances before losing his job. No matter how you slice it gregg Smith looks like  fourth starter at best and sure Carlos Gonzalez has more tools than Home Depot but it's not like he has proven he can hit consistently at the major league level. 

If I were the "Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim" I would be scared, very scared Billy Beane is on the prowl again and this time he's hungry, very hungry. I expect the Angels to have a big regression last year the proof is in the pudding. For one super closer Francisco Rodriguez and his record sixty two saves are gone. John Garland is gone. Joe Saunder's isn't likely to replicate either his 17-7 record or 3.44 era because his components don't lie. he gave up 187 hits in 198 innings, he hold had 101 strikeouts but also had 55 walks hiving him around a 2:1 ratio. Vladimir Guerrero is regressing. No more Juan Rivera, chances are Mark Teixeira will go where the money is which will more than likely be New York. To me all of this signals a fall from grace which should make for a very competitive American League West. I also don't expect this to be the last move from Beane. I expect Beane to trade for brewers shortstop J.J Hardy with a package that should resemble Vincent Mazzaro, Travis Buck and Justin Sellers? This would give the A's a very competitive team and a good offense to complement their young arms. 

This also allows Beane flexibility, Beane could fool all of us turn around and give Holliday to the highest bidder. He could also sell him for a C.C Sabathia esque deal in July. Or if the team is as competitive as I think, he could allow the A's to go for it all offer him arbitration (which he wouldn't accept) and would net Beane and the A's to compensation picks. If anything this deal illustrates the A's amount of jewels in their system. They didn't have to sell of practically any of their future since all of the players traded can be easily replaced. Gonzalez by Aaron Cuningham. Greg Smith by Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Vincent Mazzaro or Brett Anderson as soon as next season all of which can be at least number three starters long term.  Huston Street can be replaced by Andrew Carnigan or Henry Rodriguez in the not to distant future. This made me think of doing an A's system overview in the not so distant future...........either way in 2012 I'm going to get enough signatures to put Proposition B on the ballot making t illegal for Billy Beane to trade with any General Manager in baseball.

Plans

In the near future I plan to do the following things. A. Analyze the Matt Holliday trade. B Give an offseason overview for the San Francisco Giants. C. A Giants Top 20 Prospect List D. Give my thoughts on the rumored deals for Jake Peavy. 

p.s I also plan to try and get in contact with prominent baseball people and hold Q and A's 

Allow Me To Introduce Myself

Hello my name is Henry 'm an eighteen year old baseball fanatic that plans to bring the San Francisco Giants their first world series title to San Francisco. The purpose of this blog will be to inform people, let people discuss their own opinions as well as analyze trades/acquisitions that effect the league as a whole not only the Giants but, this blog will have a strong focus on the Giants. So welcome! And encourage your fiends to stop by, I whole heartedly expect to eventually have a following that rivals MccoveyChronicles Mlbtraderumors ect.