Jake Peavy: Swirling Trade Winds :Braves

Unless you have been hiding under a rock the size of Petco Park you have heard rumors involving jake Peavy and the Atlanta Braves more than once. It's not often that a very recent cy young winner in his prime and under a team friendly contract for the next three years is dealt. Especially to a team that had the sixth worst record in baseball the previous year. All of this along with Jake Peavy's no trade clause make for a very interesting scenario I say it's time to analyze.

The current package is rumored to be Yunel Escobar, either Jordan Schafer or Gorkys Hernandez and either Charlie Morton or Jo-Jo Reyes heading to the Padres. The other team believed to be in serious discussions with the Padres for the Alabama native are the Chicago Cubs whoose package would have to be considered far inferior given the current state of their farm system. 

Yunel Escobar would be a fine centerpiece for the Padres. Yunel is a fine defensive shortstop (and just turned 26) and last year the fielding bible had him as the second best shortstop in baseball behind Jimmy Rollins. According to their data Yunel made twenty one more plays than the average shortstop. Pair that slick glove with ten home runs and fifty one rbi's you find yourself a fine shortstop indeed with an ops that also ranked seventh among all major league shortstops. 

Jodan Schafer is an interesting one. A year ago at this time he was seen as a top 25 prospect by many after combining to hit .314 15 hr 63 rbi's and a nifty 23 sb's on the year. A potential all star center fielder with well above average defense in center (BaseballAmerica says he has plus ranger and a plus-plus arm). But.......things got worse this spring he tested positive for HGH but once he came back played very impressive in AA Mississippi where he hit .269 10 hr 51 rbi's and 12 sb's in little over half a season his obp was up and his slugging was barely down .(.06) Schafer illustrated he still has all star potential out there in center. As a player he does everything average to plus.  

Gorkys Hernandez is the other option in the deal. Gorkys can be a Willy Taveras type player in the future. A center fielder he has strong contact skills but, his knowledge of the strike zone is a re-ocurring problem that keeps him from becoming the player he can be.  He is a plus defensive center fielder due to his plus plus speed which gives him a knack for tracking balls down off the bat. He has a fringy average arm but his speed more than makes up for that. His instincts on the base path are raw so his pure speed doesn't translate to stealing as many bases as he could currently. But in a perfect scenario he becomes a great lead off hitter. .300/370/430 isn't out of the question throw in 40 sb's and thats a dandy player. I would still take Schafer over Hernandez though because in my mind he has a higher upside and is more likely to reach it. 

Charlie Morton has always been an enigma of sorts, he was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft. He struggled greatly in his first 3 pro seasons but once he got to Mississippi a light bulb went off and things clicked. He then went to the Arizona Fall league that year and dominated prompting the Braves and Baseball america to hype him up. Morton throws a 92-94 fastball with late life and can dial it up to 96 when he wants to. He also throws a plus curve that has been described as "nasty" and an average slider and change to fill out his arsenal. He has the potential to be a number two starter but is wildly inconsistent but figures to be a three or at worst fourth starter with flashes of dominance. 

I think this is a fair bounty to pay for three seasons of Peavy. (Though I am confused why they would want to acquire him at a time when they have numerous holes.) If not for the Padres making it none thee trimming payroll or Peavy's full no trade clause I would expect offers to be substantially higher. If I were the padres I would wait until after the free agency period to deal Peavy because chances are teams that lost out on Sabathia, Burnett,  Lowe would focus their attention to Peavy